Trump May Push to Finalize U.S.-India Trade Deal in December

Cost of living was the top concern for American voters in the midterms, according to reporting by CNBC.

The U.S.-India trade deal, which has faced persistent ambiguity since February, appears set for a final push toward completion following the electoral setback experienced by U.S. President Donald Trump in the midterm polls, CNBC reported.

Experts told CNBC that Trump could lean toward closing pending trade deals to promote them as policy achievements to the American public, identifying the pact with New Delhi as a prime candidate. According to CNBC, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi are poised to finalize the trade agreement during their scheduled December rendezvous at the G20 leaders meeting, as the bulk of the negotiations have been wrapped up.

“The election was a verdict on the cost of living, and tariffs are now a liability the President cannot defend on the numbers,” Ronak D. Desai, visiting fellow at Hoover Institution of Stanford University, told CNBC.

“Congress will not hand him an affordability win, but a trade deal is one he can announce on his own,” Desai said, noting that a deal with India now seems more probable than it did prior to the election.

Trade Deal Timeline

Mark Linscott, a former assistant U.S. trade representative and senior advisor at the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, informed CNBC that the U.S.-India trade discussions are well advanced, with a tacit understanding reportedly existing between Trump and Modi to finalize the agreement when they convene at Mar-a-Lago in December.

Trump has used tariffs as a pressure tactic to clinch trade deals with several countries. That approach has drawn the ire of political opponents who have flagged that export levies have increased costs for American households.

According to CNBC, the nonprofit Tax Foundation calculated that these duties increased the average tax burden on U.S. households by $820 in 2026 and $1,000 in 2025. Democrats prepared to challenge Trump’s signature tariff policy within days of taking control of both houses of Congress.

President Seeks Policy Achievements Through Trade Deals

Atman Trivedi, partner at Washington-based DGA Albright Stonebridge Group, told CNBC that the president may lean more into getting deals done as policy achievements to promote to the American public.

CNBC reported that in February, Trump unveiled a trade agreement with India, asserting that New Delhi had committed to increasing its purchases of American goods after the U.S. consented to reduce tariffs to 18 percent.

Trump had earlier imposed a 25 percent tariff on imports from India, plus an additional 25 percent duty for buying Russian oil. That deal awaited final approval after the Supreme Court struck down Trump tariffs, giving India space to demand preferential tariffs.

While American and Indian officials said at the start of October that negotiations reached an impasse, Trump said on Oct. 20 that the two sides were pretty close to a final deal. Indian media reports indicated that Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed discussions on the trade deal had largely concluded.

“We have been hearing for weeks that a deal is close to be settled,” said Aryan D’Rozario, associate fellow and chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, while telling CNBC that Modi’s attendance at the G20 summit in December would serve as the ideal backdrop to make the agreement official.

Official Responses

India’s commerce and external affairs ministries and the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment. A spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on Tuesday that the relationship between the two countries “enjoys bipartisan support in the United States.”

CNBC reported that the Indian stock market is currently gaining traction as a viable hedge, with investors looking for a safe haven away from the sharp sell-off impacting the artificial intelligence sector. JPMorgan projects that foreign capital inflows could reach $115 billion if global investors move to adjust their currently underweight stances on India.