U.S.Military buildup Near Venezuela focuses on Ousting Maduro, Not Counter-Narcotics
WASHINGTON - A significant increase in U.S. military presence around Venezuela is primarily aimed at regime change, not disrupting the flow of narcotics, according to security analysts. The deployment comes amid heightened tensions following disputed parliamentary elections in Venezuela and ongoing political turmoil under President Nicolás Maduro.
while drug trafficking is a concern in Venezuela, experts say the U.S. buildup is a response to MaduroS refusal to cede power after the opposition’s victory in recent elections-results the U.S.and opposition groups have deemed fraudulent. Dozens of opposition leaders were arrested leading up to the vote, widely viewed as a sham by many.
“It is threatening and bluffing, from both sides,” stated Koopman, a security analyst. “Venezuela is a hornet’s nest. The military is loyal to President Maduro, there is a drug mafia, there are gangs, militias with enormous numbers of weapons and they are all groups that have an interest in the situation remaining as it is.”
The U.S. risks entanglement in a protracted conflict similar to those experienced in Iraq or Afghanistan should an invasion occur, analysts warn. While attacks at sea are possible, Venezuela’s limited naval capabilities would likely be insufficient to remove Maduro from power.
The mobilization also carries risks for the U.S., with some experts suggesting that a lack of action could force a justification for the troop buildup. Koopman believes a U.S. retreat is also possible. The proximity of Venezuela to Dutch Caribbean islands Curaçao and Aruba-approximately 80 kilometers and closer respectively-has prompted the U.S. to inform the Dutch Ministry of Defense of the naval presence.
Maduro has responded by announcing a “massive mobilization” of Venezuela’s armed forces, including civilian militias. Despite the opposition’s electoral success, Maduro has maintained the support of the military.
“The threat from the US is now playing into maduro’s hands,” Koopman explained. “His own supporters have a lot of doubt about him. Venezuela has been greatly impoverished under his rule, but because of the threat from America, everyone in their own ranks is supporting him again.”
Venezuela continues to receive military support from Russia, and neighboring countries unhappy with the political situation are likely to offer Maduro political backing in the event of an attack. The U.S. reportedly hopes Maduro will flee, but analysts assess the likelihood of this outcome as low.
