Biden Administration Outlines 15-Point Plan for Potential Ukraine–Russia Settlement
WASHINGTON – The Biden administration is reportedly pursuing a multi-faceted strategy aimed at compelling Russia to negotiate a settlement in Ukraine, according to a recent analysis by Ryan Evans, founder of War on the Rocks. The plan, detailed in the analysis, centers on sustaining pressure on Moscow through military aid, economic sanctions, and diplomatic isolation, while simultaneously signaling a potential path toward security guarantees if Russia alters its course.
The strategy, outlined in 15 key points, focuses on shifting from a policy of simply deterring further Russian aggression to one of compellence – actively convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war is more costly than reaching a negotiated solution.
Here are the core elements of the proposed plan:
Military Support (Points 1-5):
- Maintain a consistent flow of military assistance to Ukraine, including intelligence support.
- Prioritize air defense systems for Ukraine.
- Provide long-range strike capabilities to Ukrainian forces.
- Enhance UkraineS electronic warfare capabilities.
- Bolster Ukraine’s industrial capacity to maintain and repair equipment, ensuring a steady supply of ammunition and spare parts.
Economic Pressure (Points 6-9):
- Enforce existing sanctions and export controls rigorously.
- Close loopholes allowing Russia to circumvent sanctions through third-country intermediaries (shipping, insurance, finance).
- Tighten controls on components used in Russian missile and drone production.
- Increase pressure on nations quietly aiding sanctions evasion.
Diplomatic Strategy (Points 10-15):
- Avoid a diplomatic approach contingent on President Putin’s mood, ensuring consistency.
- Frame diplomacy as a means to compel Russia,not as a favor offered to it.
- Offer a settlement framework that allows Russia to secure limited gains while avoiding further escalation.
- Resist front-loading concessions to entice Russia to the negotiating table.
- Clearly communicate that continued war will lead to greater military risks, economic constraints, and diplomatic isolation for Russia.
- Acknowledge the costs of compellence, notably for Ukraine, but argue it’s preferable to a negotiation process that rewards aggression.
The analysis highlights the Trump administration’s efforts to curtail India’s imports of Russian oil as a positive example of applying economic pressure. However, it stresses that the goal isn’t to collapse the Russian economy, but to demonstrate the unsustainable long-term costs of the conflict.
Evans argues that this approach is not about humiliating Russia, but about presenting a clear choice: accept a settlement that offers limited security gains or face escalating risks and isolation. The plan acknowledges the hardship imposed on Ukraine during this period of pressure, but contends that it is a necessary condition for achieving a durable and just peace.
