NFL Week 11 Picks: analyst Favors Browns, Rams, and Chiefs Amidst Divisional Clashes
New York, NY – As the NFL season enters Week 11, key divisional matchups dominate the slate, presenting opportunities for savvy bettors. Analyst Erich Richter, boasting a 30.15 percent return on investment as 2022, offers his picks, leaning towards teams with strong defensive showings and quarterback advantages.
Richter identifies the Browns +7.5 over the Ravens as a strong play, citing expected windy conditions in Cleveland (24 MPH) and Lamar jackson’s recent performance. His model projects a tighter game, 22.67 to 18.48 in favor of Baltimore, emphasizing the importance of securing the hook in the spread. The Browns’ defense is currently ranked No. 4 overall in DVOA.
In the four o’clock window, richter backs the Rams -3 over the Seahawks, despite Seattle’s recent success. He believes the Rams’ Super Bowl contention and ability to control Seahawks quarterback sam Darnold with thier defensive line will lead to a victory. Both teams rank within the top 10 in key defensive metrics, including yards per carry allowed and yards per pass attempt allowed.
richter also favors the Chiefs -4 over the Broncos, acknowledging Denver’s league-leading defense allowing the fewest yards per play. However, he ultimately sides with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who had two weeks to prepare for this divisional contest. He also suggests considering the under as a potential bet.
looking ahead to Sunday night, Richter recommends betting on the Lions +2.5 over the Eagles, highlighting Detroit’s offensive surge under dan Campbell’s play-calling and their sixth-ranked yards per play average over the last three games. He anticipates increased motion and play action from the Lions in Philadelphia, exploiting the Eagles’ 21st-ranked rush defense.
On Monday night, Richter’s model projects the cowboys -3.5 over the Raiders as a favorable bet, with his model favoring Dallas by four points. He points to the Raiders’ No. 28 DVOA ranking and the Cowboys’ advantage in key position matchups, notably a favorable comparison between Geno Smith and Dak Prescott. Las Vegas’ struggles in pass protection further bolster the pick.
Last week: 6-7
Season: 66-71
Richter, a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, has established himself as a prosperous MMA and NFL betting analyst, consistently delivering profitable returns through a combination of data-driven modeling and strategic long-shot selections.
