The Long Arc Of American Power – The Cipher Brief
Summary of the Discussion between Kagan and Petraeus on US Foreign Policy & Interventions
This text details a discussion between Robert Kagan and David Petraeus regarding the history of US involvement in global conflicts, lessons learned from past interventions, and the ongoing tension between American security and its role in world affairs. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
Robert Kagan’s Viewpoint:
* historical Sympathies: The US has a long-standing tendency to care about events and regimes in other parts of the world, even those with autocratic tendencies (like Russia, Austria, and Prussia historically).
* The “Busybody” tendency: Americans often feel compelled to intervene when they perceive offenses or injustices abroad,leading to involvement in conflicts despite the nation’s geographical security. this creates a recurring cycle of intervention,questioning involvement,and wanting to retreat.
* Internal Tension: This cycle highlights a fundamental tension between the US’s inherent security (protected by oceans) and its inclination to be actively involved in global affairs. This tension explains fluctuations in military capability.
David Petraeus’ Perspective:
* Intervention Justification: He frames many US interventions as responses to direct attacks (Pearl Harbor, attacks on shipping) or threats from unfriendly powers seeking regional control (Communists during the Cold War, now China and/or Russia).
* Miscalculations: He acknowledges that the US has sometimes misjudged the motivations of adversaries (e.g., vietnam being more about nationalism than communism).
* Influence of Geopolitics: He points to the US concern over countries aligning with rivals like China,Iran,and Russia (citing Venezuela under Maduro as an example) as a driver of intervention.
* Lessons from Iraq & Afghanistan:
* Post-Conflict Failure: He emphasizes the disastrous consequences of failing to plan for the post-conflict phase in Iraq and Afghanistan. specifically, he criticizes the mass dismissal of the Iraqi military and Baath Party members without a reconciliation plan, creating a pool of disaffected individuals.
* Lack of Commitment to Nation-Building: He argues the US was never truly committed to nation-building in Afghanistan, but rather focused on exiting. Announcing withdrawal dates while simultaneously announcing troop increases undermined the perception of US resolve.
* Washington-Driven Drawdowns: He highlights that withdrawal decisions were often based on political considerations in Washington, rather than conditions on the ground in Afghanistan.
* Future Approach: He advocates for measured objectives when using force, avoiding large-scale “boots on the ground” deployments, and prioritizing “advise, assist, and enable” operations with local forces.
Overall Theme:
The discussion reveals a critical examination of US foreign policy, acknowledging both the historical impulses driving intervention and the significant failures in execution. Both Kagan and Petraeus suggest a need for a more nuanced and strategic approach to global engagement, recognizing the complexities of conflict and the importance of long-term commitment and careful planning.