US election

According to the US polling agency FiveThirtyEightemerging trends, from April last year to early February this year, Trump’s support within the party continued to rise, and the gap between Trump and his biggest competitor Haley has reached 58 percentage points. Based on the physical meaning given to “election momentum”, this means that Trump’s future momentum will only double, and it will no longer be easy to change the current trajectory. Just like riding a bicycle, the greater the forward momentum, the harder it will be for someone to control it. You knock down. Therefore, not only the United States, but also countries around the world are psychologically preparing for the U.S. election at the end of the year, and Trump has a good chance of returning to power.

Compared with Trump’s situation, at the same time, social media (especially TikTok and Instagram) are constantly showing short clips of Biden’s old, faltering, and slow actions. Political attacks (cognitive warfare) have been launched, and It clearly highlights that Biden is too old to be trusted. Just as Trump’s support among party members has reached 70%, the ABC News/Ipsos poll recently released the latest poll. As many as 73% of Democrats believe that the 81-year-old Biden cannot be re-elected. In addition, the “Biden Mental Acuity Report” released by Special Counsel Robert Hur in early February stated that the current president is a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” poor memory), which also dealt a big blow to Biden’s reliability.

Going back to 2022, Biden’s public support plummeted due to domestic worries (post-epidemic economy), foreign troubles (Afghanistan troop withdrawal/Ukrainian-Russian war) and other major environmental factors. At that time, the American media predicted that “the Democratic candidate is not Biden” in 2024. One of the named alternatives was Hillary, and she said through the Financial Times: “Challenging Biden for re-election is a very ‘destructive’ act,” thus denying that she will be elected again. Campaign inclusion options. However, Hillary also mentioned: “When people say to me, ‘Well, he (Biden) is old,’ yes, that’s right. But look at what he has done (referring to Biden’s administration). Then , if this (Biden’s policy) is not enough for you, then look at the alternatives.”

What Hillary said in the last paragraph refers to the fact that if you look at the old, middle-aged and young political elites of the Democratic Party, there is actually no one with enough political energy to be on par with Biden. Even Biden’s current deputy, Harris, would have difficulty becoming a replacement because at this moment, “Democrats are completely unable to replace an unpopular person with a ‘very unpopular person’.” Hillary mentioned two years ago that everyone thinks Biden is too old. Today, not only has the situation not improved, but it is also more difficult to use “what Biden has done” to divert the American public’s doubts about an 81-year-old president. .

Under normal circumstances, even if Biden’s support in the polls is not good, as the current president is seeking re-election, he still has the opportunity to use administrative resources to create a boosting effect in the later period. Just like although Trump’s satisfaction during his term in office hit a record low in the history of US presidents, However, during his re-election campaign, Biden naturally had the means to challenge Trump again by significantly reducing the national unemployment rate to reverse the trend (only disrupted by the epidemic). However, when the president’s age is no longer just “a number” but is clearly reflected in his behavior, every time Biden falters in public may influence the existing public opinion trend. Then, In order to seek re-election, a president must first try his best to convince his supporters that he has enough mental strength to take on a second term. Such a “re-election strategy” is more fatal than “low polls”.

However, a thorny issue arose. The Democratic Party had no alternative plan at all, so descriptions such as “Biden’s age is the most worrying thing for the Democratic Party” and “Biden has trapped the Democratic Party” appeared in the media. As time went by, As we move towards the general election date, Biden will only get older. No matter how powerful the policy measures are to turn the tide, they cannot be a solution to his biological age.

The Democrats will eventually have to admit that they have painted themselves into a corner. If one of the problems of the Republican Party is that its ideology is becoming increasingly extreme, one of the dilemmas of the Democratic Party may be that “the rising stars in politics are not doing enough.” When Biden took office four years ago, there were many questions about his “age.” Facts have proved that voters may not be able to understand Biden’s better judgment than younger politicians from his age, but they can clearly see a person The scars of age. Having said that, the Democratic Party without a “second candidate” has a bigger problem than the “aging of the political leadership class”. It also reflects that there are indeed big blind spots in the management and development of an established political party.

Therefore, some media commentators have warned against this, pointing out that the Democratic Party has made the mistake of “lack of Plan B”. It should be that this party has been accustomed to treating a person’s purely superficial characteristics (such as race, gender) for a long time. The most important political bargaining chip, while ignoring the development of real national governance capabilities, until even though many “symbolic politicians” have been created, none are qualified to serve as president. If this continues, the problem of talent gaps in political parties will become a vicious cycle.

※The author is the main writer of “Shangbao”

#Haozhongs #Column #Bidens #EnlightenmentA #party #push #cornerreport #newspaper
2024-02-14 23:00:00