Serious

Signs of a serious crisis have appeared on the restaurant market: more and more establishments are closing and, on the contrary, fewer new ones appear. As a result, the total number of stores in the fourth quarter decreased by more than 10%. According to experts and market participants, the reason was the difficulty in purchasing the products, reduced traffic and mistakes in choosing locations. New investment is hampered by “general uncertainty” and the tenacity of landowners.

Since September 2022, the number of restaurant closures has started to grow sharply in Russia, according to a study by R-Keeper, an automation service for cafes and restaurants. Thus, in the fall the number of closures increased by 25.7%, while the number of openings decreased by 3.8% year on year. As a result, for the fourth quarter, the number of operating stores decreased by 10.4%. R-Keeper used data from cartographic services and closed sources for the calculations, but does not disclose absolute figures.

R-Keeper’s chief analyst Nikolai Oligerov believes the decline is due to the general autumn instability. The head of the CORE.XP retail department Marina Malakhatko speaks of a decline in revenue for a number of establishments due to the redistribution of consumer spending, which most affected outlets with an average check of 1-2 thousand rubles. RestCon CEO Elena Perepelitsa notes that even a slight decrease in traffic can become critical for catering establishments outside the central resorts.

The majority of closures have been recorded in the segments of cafes, pizza places, sushi bars, bakeries, and the pace of openings has decreased dramatically in street food establishments, bars and canteens, says R-Keeper.

The exception is fast food restaurants, where the number of openings exceeds the closures. Irina Burenko, commercial director of R4S Group, says street food and coffee shops accounted for 35% of rental transactions in the first quarter and 9% in the fourth. In the enterprise, this is associated with oversupply.

Artem Lomize, managing partner of the Moremania chain, says that there is a trend of consumers saving in establishments of the middle price segment. But development is held back not so much by the decrease in traffic as by general uncertainty, he underlines. Also, continues Mr. Lomize, the owners are in no hurry to reduce rates to fill vacancies. While downtime in malls is undesirable, an independent space owner can expect a long time to rent out the facility on his terms, he explains.

Shokoladnitsa group agrees that the year for the market was once again not the easiest, as the momentum of closures could increase. The group itself has opened more than 20 new locations this year, mostly its own, and the closures have been minimal and related to the inefficiency of outlets in specific locations.

Irina Kozina, director of street retail at NF Group, says 91 restaurants were opened in Moscow’s central shopping streets in January-November 2022 compared to 116 establishments in 2021. Pinskiy & Co restaurant group represented the most openings, he notes. According to Ms. Kozina, customers of high-priced establishments depend little on external factors, and competition between such restaurants is less. The founder of the StrEat project, Maxim Popov, says that two or three restaurant groups are opening establishments in Moscow, and most of them are waiting.

Igor Bukharov, president of the Federation of restaurateurs and hoteliers, points out that data from one service does not allow us to assess the big picture. According to him, in the overwhelming majority of cases, establishments are closed due to incorrectly chosen places, the inability to negotiate with the owners, management errors and many other reasons. Irina Kozina adds that some restaurateurs have probably not been able to adapt to the new conditions, including those related to the restructuring of the menu and the purchase of raw materials.

Artem Lomize says that Moremania has begun to pay more attention to the location of potential objects, as the price of an incorrectly chosen location is “extremely high.” Shokoladnitsa Group plans to open new coffee shops in 2023 according to the previously scheduled schedule. As Maxim Popov points out, a recovery in the pace of discovery is possible after a period of relative stability.

Anatoly Kostyrev, Alina Savitskaya, Alexandra Mertsalova