Is it possible that a long, narrow strip of land that occupies no more than 4,200 square kilometers is causing so much concern in Europe by once again playing a buffering role in the Russian-Ukrainian war?
On the one hand, the strategic position that Transnistria (or Transnistria) occupies on the map, and on the other hand, the fraternal relationship with “mother” Russia clearly answer that yes, it is true. And to a large extent indeed. It is, after all, a state that, developed alongside the eastern banks of the Dniester River, forms the connecting link between Moldova and Ukraine. Willingly or not, therefore, it unites and separates.
A dot on the map without recognition
To the locals, who mostly speak Russian, Transnistria is known as Pridnestrovie and its capital is Tiraspol – better known for football reasons.
Transnistria is not a recognized state and is internationally listed as part of neighboring Moldova. But in reality it is a presidential republic that has declared itself independent since 1990. It even has a flag (with a hammer and sickle), a parliament and a government operating exclusively with its own Constitution, currency (the ruble) and an army (infantry brigades and a small air force of legacy aircraft ).
Its population is around 500,000, of which almost half of the inhabitants hold Russian citizenship. 1/4 of the total number is concentrated in the elegant, relatively, capital, the overall image of which, however, refers to Soviet republics of previous decades.
When and how did it become independent?
The European Council has classified Transnistria in the “frozen conflict” zones. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Artsakh also belong to the same regime, because their status quo remains unclear and controversial.
Without flexibility, Moldova has accepted the autonomy and self-determination of Transnistria, as it was defeated in its war of the early 90s. The first armed battles between Transnistrian rebels and the Moldovan army had broken out in November 1990, shortly before the fall of the USSR and the secession of all the eastern republics it included.
The locals had the assistance of Russian soldiers from the beginning, however the intervention of the former 14th Soviet division acted as a catalyst for the outcome of the short war. The ceasefire was signed 20 months later, when Moldova permanently lost control of the region by withdrawing from the Transnistrian territories.
That agreement remains in force to this day, having undergone some revisions. Of course, although the truce holds, the issue is not resolved as long as pro-Russian governments are steadily influenced by the Kremlin. Under these conditions it is inevitable that Transnistria is considered a “protectorate” of Moscow which seeks its annexation to the rest of the country and is steadily working towards it.
Russia’s influence
It is even rumored that secret agents of the Putin government operate within its borders, acting as enclaves on the borders of the European Union. Officially there are 1,000-1,500 Russian soldiers on the territory of Transnistria as part of the peacekeeping force that was agreed upon 32 years ago. Of course, the unit in question is characterized more as a military base. In 2008 NATO had demanded the withdrawal of Russian forces without, of course, finding a response.
The economy of Transnistria is highly dependent on steel production and the diverse commercial activity of the omnipotent Sheriff who sells and buys almost everything (gas stations, supermarkets, media, real estate, advertising, mobile networks, tobacco, alcohol, football team etc).
The founder and owner of the latter, Viktor Gusan, was a KGB operative and bore the nickname “sheriff”. He had participated in the war of independence of Transnistria and since then has had a catalytic effect on political developments as the country’s absolute oligarch and shadow leader. A pro-Russian supporter of the existing government regime, he has secured exemption from customs duties and other taxes. Of course, there are testimonies that implicate him in smuggling, corruption and other criminal acts, including attempted murder.
Why is he now asking Moscow for help?
On Wednesday 2/28 the Transnistrian High Authorities (Congress) asked Russia for “protective measures” against the “increased pressure” caused by Chisinau (capital of Moldova) against the background of the worsening tensions due to the conflict in neighboring Ukraine. The local government accuses Moldova of “destroying” its economy and “violating human rights and freedoms in Transnistria.”
Some analysts believe that Transnistria’s request for protection is mainly aimed at destabilizing the pro-Western government of Moldova, which Moscow has been trying to overthrow for some time.
For its part, Russian diplomacy quickly responded to the calls, assuring that it has as its “priority” the “protection” of the (mainly Russian-speaking) residents of Transnistria and added that Moscow will “carefully consider” Tiraspol’s request. However, he did not give more details about how this will happen.
Here’s why such a small strip of land is likely to move the two-year-old war on Ukrainian soil further west.
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