Overview

This week’s Nikkei 225 futures are at a turning point of 34,000 yen, and sentiment seems to be strengthening due to year-end appreciation. The US market closed on the 24th, the day after Thanksgiving, and while the New York Dow and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq fell, weighed down by a rise in US long-term interest rates. Aggressive buying and selling has been refrained from, but depending on the sales trends of Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, there will likely be more awareness of the possibility of a year-end high.

In the November Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which combines the U.S. manufacturing and service industries, announced on the 24th, the employment index decreased by 1.6 points to 49.7, marking the first time in three and a half years that activity is on the verge of expansion and contraction. Divided by 50. The view that the US interest rate hike phase is over continued to support the market.

Last week’s Nikkei 225 futures were bought as high as 33,870 yen on the 20th, breaking the highest price set on June 19th after the bubble burst. After that, the price adjusted to 33,110 yen, and on the 24th, after the holiday, it was bought to 33,820 yen. The price continues to move within the range of +1σ and +2σ of the Bollinger Bands, which are moving upward, but after adjusting to +1σ, it has become an ideal rebound.

+1σ is located at around 33,310 yen, and +2σ has risen to around 34,360 yen, so even if it hits the turning point of 34,000 yen, it would be hard to be wary of overheating. Although there is a possibility that there will be a sense of accomplishment for a while, when adjustments are made, we would like to assume a long response aiming for a push. First of all, we assume a range of 33,625 yen to 33,875 yen centered on the option exercise price of 33,750 yen, which is the closing price level of the night session, but we are conscious of the firmness around 33,750 yen. In such a situation, I would like to be aware of rounding up the range from 33,750 yen to 34,000 yen.

In addition, in the US market last week, Microsoftand NvidiaThe index hit a new high since its listing, and this value, which had a large index impact, provided support for high-tech stocks and pushed up the Nikkei Stock Average. After that, Nvidia showed signs of taking profits as its cautious outlook for the future turned sour. Nvidia has reportedly told Chinese customers that it will postpone the release of a new chip for artificial intelligence (AI) in China, citing sources familiar with the matter. This is one of the semiconductors being developed for China in order to comply with US export regulations, so it seems necessary to keep an eye on stock price trends.

Last weekend, the VIX index fell to 12.46, below the 12.68 reached on September 15th and the lowest level since the beginning of the year. It has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, and there is a possibility that short covering will be strengthened. Therefore, even if the US year-end sales season falls short of expectations, it is important to avoid shorting the stock amid a self-sustaining rebound.

In addition, the NT multiple was 14.16x for futures contracts.At one point, it rose as high as 14.11 times, but some semiconductor stocks weakened, and the yen depreciated to the mid-149 yen level to the dollar over the weekend, leading to Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証Ｐ]This is due to the TOPIX type having a slight advantage, as export-related items such as these are being bought. However, as the stock continued to move across the 200-day moving average line, there was evidence of firmness at that line. It all depends on Nvidia’s trends, but given the sentiment of year-end high prices, I would like to see the stance of aiming for the spread with NT long in the correction situation.

According to the buying and selling trends by investment sector for the third week of November (November 13th to 17th), overseas investors were net buyers of spot and futures for three consecutive weeks, with a net purchase amount of 1,029.6 billion yen ( In the first week of November, there was net buying of 126.6 billion yen), which was the second consecutive week of net buying of more than 1 trillion yen. In addition, spot stocks are net buyers of 362.9 billion yen (net purchases of 78.3 billion yen) for the fourth consecutive week, and futures are net purchases of 666.7 billion yen (net purchases of 1,048.2 billion yen) for the third consecutive week. There is. Individuals were net sellers for a total of 591.1 billion yen in spot and futures, the third consecutive week of net selling. Trust banks were net sellers for the second consecutive week, totaling 134.6 billion yen in cash and futures.

On the economic schedule, on the 27th, October corporate service price index, January-October Chinese industrial enterprise profits, US October new home sales, Cyber ​​Monday, US September S&P Case-Shiller housing prices, US November on the 28th. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, July-September quarter GDP final figures for the United States, U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Report (Beige Book) on the 29th, October Commercial Statistics, October industrial production, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on the 30th. 28th Conference of the Parties COP28 (until December 12), China November Manufacturing PMI, China November Services PMI, US October Personal Income, US October Personal Expenditures (PCE), US November Chicago Purchasing Department Association economic index, OPEC+ meeting, October 1st unemployment rate/effective job openings ratio, July-September corporate enterprise statistics survey, China November Caixin manufacturing industry PMI, US November ISM manufacturing industry economic index , US construction spending is scheduled for October.

–Playback Market–

●SQ value
December contract Nikkei 225 27576.37 TOPIX 1945.27
January contract Nikkei 225 26325.21 TOPIX 1900.71
February contract Nikkei 225 27779.75 TOPIX 1986.19
March contract Nikkei 225 28377.34 TOPIX 2047.32
April contract Nikkei 225 28519.43 TOPIX 2019.76
May contract Nikkei 225 29235.08 TOPIX 2090.33
June contract Nikkei 225 32018.38 TOPIX 2211.13
July contract Nikkei 225 32484.24 TOPIX 2245.68
August contract Nikkei 225 32013.86 TOPIX 2278.68
September contract Nikkei 225 32921.39 TOPIX 2370.93
October contract Nikkei 225 32360.91 TOPIX 2326.75
November contract Nikkei 225 32454.88 TOPIX 2318.99

◆Nikkei 225 futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day 23/12 November 24th
23/12 November 24th 33460 33820 33440 33600 +160
23/12 November 22 33320 33600 33110 33440 +90
23/12 November 21st 33350 33470 33190 33350 +30
23/12 November 20th 33590 33870 33320 33320 -280

◇TOPIX futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 24th 2376.5 2399.0 2376.0 2388.5 +12.5
23/12 November 22 2363.5 2387.5 2355.5 2376.0 +10.5
23/12 November 21st 2370.0 2374.0 2355.0 2365.5 -3.5
23/12 November 20th 2395.5 2405.5 2368.0 2369.0 -26.5

●Chicago Nikkei Average Yen-denominated
Settlement price Osaka comparison from the previous day
November 24th (December contract) 33740 +140
November 22nd (December contract) 33770 +330
November 21st (December contract) 33200 -150
November 20th (December contract) 33380 +60
*The change from the previous day is compared to the closing price of the Osaka Exchange.

□Cash position arbitrage balance (amount) related to arbitrage trading
Sell ​​Compared to the previous weekend Buy Compared to the previous weekend
November 17th 24.7 billion yen +18.7 billion yen 814.1 billion yen +146.6 billion yen
November 10th 6.0 billion yen -34.9 billion yen 667.4 billion yen +152.6 billion yen
November 2nd 40.9 billion yen +5.3 billion yen 514.8 billion yen +116.3 billion yen
October 27th 35.6 billion yen +200 million yen 398.4 billion yen -183.6 billion yen

□Cash position (number of shares) related to arbitrage trading
Selling Change from previous day Buying Change from previous day
On November 21, 10.88 million plants – 1.16 million plants, 318.41 million plants + 23.43 million plants
On November 20, 12.05 million plants + 2.33 million plants, 294.98 million plants – 28.24 million plants
November 17: 9.71 million plants + 8.04 million plants 323.22 million plants + 26.64 million plants
On November 16, 1.67 million plants – 1.16 million plants, 296.58 million plants + 1.13 million plants
November 15: 2.84 million plants + 230,000 plants 295.45 million plants + 20.34 million plants
November 14: 2.6 million plants: 0 plants: 275.1 million plants – 1.49 million plants
November 13: 2.6 million plants + 1.16 million plants 276.6 million plants – 2.67 million plants
November 10: 1.43 million plants, 0 plants, 279.27 million plants – 3.96 million plants
November 9: 1.43 million plants – 1.38 million plants 283.23 million plants + 13.19 million plants
On November 8, 2.82 million plants – 4.76 million plants, 270.04 million plants – 4.19 million plants
On November 7, 7.59 million plants – 2.56 million plants, 274.23 million plants + 200,000 plants
November 6: 10.15 million plants – 570,000 plants 274.03 million plants + 43.95 million plants

■ Trends in index-linked exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases by the Bank of Japan (regular ETF portion)
【2022】
January 14th 70.1 billion yen
January 25th 70.1 billion yen
February 14th 70.1 billion yen
March 7th 70.1 billion yen
April 7th 70.1 billion yen
May 19th 70.1 billion yen
June 13th 70.1 billion yen
June 17th 70.1 billion yen
December 2nd 70.1 billion yen
【2023】
March 13th 70.1 billion yen
March 14th 70.1 billion yen
October 4th 70.1 billion yen

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This week’s Nikkei 225 futures are likely to be focused on market trends following the financial results of US company NVDA>. Last week in the US market, the consumer price index (CPI) for October fell short of market expectations, leading to expectations for interest rate hikes to be halted and expectations for next year’s interest rate cuts to rise. With long-term interest rates in the U.S. showing signs of a downward trend, investors are turning their attention to high-tech stocks, including large-cap tech stocks.

The Nasdaq rose to 14,194 points at one point last week, approaching the year-to-date high of 14,446 points set on July 19, and depending on Nvidia’s financial results, it could provide support for tech stocks. Be expected. If the tech-led rise seems to gain momentum, the Nikkei 225 will likely be pushed up by the high-impact values ​​of the index in Japan, which will spread to tech stocks.

Last week’s Nikkei 225 futures rose by 740 yen on the 15th, surpassing the return high of 33,450 yen on September 15th, and after that, they remained in the high range, but on the 16th they briefly reached 33,620 yen. I was disappointed. The large rise on the 15th caused the stock to break above +2σ of the Bollinger Bands, raising concerns about short-term overheating, but the stock continued to trend upward while cooling down the overheating by holding high prices.

+2σ has risen to around 33,820 yen as of the night session, and +1σ has risen to around 32,910 yen. Additionally, the 25-day moving average, which is trending upward, has risen to 33,000 yen, and a golden cross with the 75-day moving average, which is trending around 33,060 yen, is approaching. Weekly +2σ has been rounded up to 33,930 yen, +1σ has been rounded up to 33,100 yen, and in an upward trend, the year-to-date high of 33,710 yen reached on June 19th is within range. Dew. Even at a new high, the price remains below +2σ, so the sense of overheating is not increasing, and it seems likely that it will invite further short covering.

In addition, due to the downward trend in long-term interest rates in the US, the yen has been appreciating at the 149 yen level to the dollar in the foreign exchange market, and it is thought that there is short covering from carry transactions. Although the NY crude oil futures market showed a rebound at the end of last week, it fell to the $72.90/barrel level on the 16th, the lowest level since July, and there is likely to be a rebalancing from value to growth.

Last week was Tokyo Electron. <8035> [東証Ｐ]The upward revision was received favorably and the price reached a new high since listing. It is easy to take profits from the recent strong price movements of high-tech stocks, but it is also easy to take intermittent short covering, and it is easy to take Nikkei 225 futures towards long positions aiming for a dip.

Last weekend, the NT multiple fell to 14.02x for futures contracts, falling below the 200-day line at 14.05x.applied materialsThe stock fell sharply in after-hours trading after it was reported that the company was being investigated for violating export regulations to China, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks. However, although Applied Materials was sold in the U.S. market on the 17th, the decline narrowed after the sell-off ended, and the impact was limited.

In addition, the NT multiple exceeded the 52-week line due to last week’s rise, and at one point was touching the 26-week line. Since it had surpassed +2σ and was approaching +3σ, it was also a level that could be bounced back.Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous American investor Warren BuffettHowever, it appears that there was a shift towards value stocks as the company reportedly raised 122 billion yen through yen bonds. However, although it depends on Nvidia’s financial results, it is likely that the correction has come to an end as the price has fallen below +2σ on the weekly basis due to the decline over the weekend, and we assume a rebalancing move in response to the decline from the June high of 14.69 times.

Furthermore, the VIX index fell to 13.80. This is the first time the stock has closed below 14.00 since September 15th, forming a trend targeting the low of 12.68 made on the same day. Currently, the price has fallen below the consolidating range between 15.00 and short covering is likely to become stronger.

In addition, the 23rd will be closed this week for Labor Day, and the United States will also be closed for Thanksgiving Day.While expectations for the year-end sales season are likely to rise, last weekHowever, it is important to pay attention to the possibility that uncertainty surrounding consumption will become a burden, as the economy has fallen sharply due to the cautious outlook.

According to the buying and selling trends by investment sector for the second week of November (November 6th to 110th), overseas investors were net buyers of spot and futures for two consecutive weeks, with a net purchase amount of 1,126.6 billion yen ( In the first week of November, net purchases amounted to 217.5 billion yen). In addition, spot stocks are net buyers of 78.3 billion yen (net purchases of 57.6 billion yen) for the third consecutive week, and futures are net buyers of 1,048.2 billion yen (net purchases of 159.9 billion yen) for the second consecutive week. There is. Individuals were net sellers for the second consecutive week, totaling 385.5 billion yen in spot and futures. Trust banks were net sellers for a total of 177.9 billion yen in cash and futures, marking the first time in three weeks that they were net sellers.

The economic schedule includes the US October Conference Board Economic Leading Index on the 20th, the US October existing home sales number on the 21st, and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceedings (held from October 31st to November 1st). ), US October Durable Goods Orders on the 22nd, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final figures for the US November, October National Consumer Price Index on the 24th, September Business Conditions Index final figures, Black Friday, US 11 The monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the US Services Industry Index (PMI) are scheduled for November.

–Playback Market–

●SQ value
December contract Nikkei 225 27576.37 TOPIX 1945.27
January contract Nikkei 225 26325.21 TOPIX 1900.71
February contract Nikkei 225 27779.75 TOPIX 1986.19
March contract Nikkei 225 28377.34 TOPIX 2047.32
April contract Nikkei 225 28519.43 TOPIX 2019.76
May contract Nikkei 225 29235.08 TOPIX 2090.33
June contract Nikkei 225 32018.38 TOPIX 2211.13
July contract Nikkei 225 32484.24 TOPIX 2245.68
August contract Nikkei 225 32013.86 TOPIX 2278.68
September contract Nikkei 225 32921.39 TOPIX 2370.93
October contract Nikkei 225 32360.91 TOPIX 2326.75
November contract Nikkei 225 32454.88 TOPIX 2318.99

◆Nikkei 225 futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 17th 33450 33610 33210 33600 +150
23/12 November 16 33470 33620 33220 33450 ±0
23/12 November 15th 32700 33560 32700 33450 +740
23/12 November 14th 32600 32850 32570 32710 +140
23/12 November 13th 32610 33000 32420 32570 -10

◇TOPIX futures (daily)
Opening price High price Low price Settlement price Change from previous day
23/12 November 17th 2372.0 2395.5 2358.5 2395.5 +24.5
23/12 November 16 2370.0 2384.5 2359.0 2371.0 +1.0
23/12 November 15th 2343.0 2381.5 2343.0 2370.0 +26.5
23/12 November 14th 2341.0 2358.5 2338.0 2343.5 +4.5
23/12 November 13th 2336.5 2357.5 2328.0 2339.0 +2.0

●Chicago Nikkei Average Yen-denominated
Settlement price Osaka comparison from the previous day
November 17th (December contract) 33530 -70
November 16th (December contract) 33405 -45
November 15th (December contract) 33385 -65
November 14th (December contract) 33210 +500
November 13th (December contract) 32780 +210
*The change from the previous day is compared to the closing price of the Osaka Exchange.

□Cash position arbitrage balance (amount) related to arbitrage trading
Sell ​​Compared to the previous weekend Buy Compared to the previous weekend
November 10th 6.0 billion yen -34.9 billion yen 667.4 billion yen +152.6 billion yen
November 2nd 40.9 billion yen +5.3 billion yen 514.8 billion yen +116.3 billion yen
October 27th 35.6 billion yen +200 million yen 398.4 billion yen -183.6 billion yen
October 20th 35.3 billion yen -12.3 billion yen 582.1 billion yen -89.6 billion yen

□Cash position (number of shares) related to arbitrage trading
Selling Change from previous day Buying Change from previous day
November 15: 2.84 million plants + 230,000 plants 295.45 million plants + 20.34 million plants
November 14: 2.6 million plants: 0 plants: 275.1 million plants – 1.49 million plants
November 13: 2.6 million plants + 1.16 million plants 276.6 million plants – 2.67 million plants
November 10: 1.43 million plants, 0 plants, 279.27 million plants – 3.96 million plants
November 9: 1.43 million plants – 1.38 million plants 283.23 million plants + 13.19 million plants
On November 8, 2.82 million plants – 4.76 million plants, 270.04 million plants – 4.19 million plants
On November 7, 7.59 million plants – 2.56 million plants, 274.23 million plants + 200,000 plants
November 6: 10.15 million plants – 570,000 plants 274.03 million plants + 43.95 million plants
November 2: 10.73 million plants + 950,000 plants 230.08 million plants + 4.49 million plants
November 1, 9.77 million pieces – 300,000 pieces, 225.58 million pieces + 47.71 million pieces
On October 31, 10.08 million plants – 350,000 plants, 177.86 million plants – 10.06 million plants
October 30: 10.43 million plants + 530,000 plants 187.93 million plants + 2.96 million plants

■Trends in index-linked exchange traded fund (ETF) purchases by the Bank of Japan (regular ETF portion)
【2022】
January 14th 70.1 billion yen
January 25th 70.1 billion yen
February 14th 70.1 billion yen
March 7th 70.1 billion yen
April 7th 70.1 billion yen
May 19th 70.1 billion yen
June 13th 70.1 billion yen
June 17th 70.1 billion yen
December 2nd 70.1 billion yen
【2023】
March 13th 70.1 billion yen
March 14th 70.1 billion yen
October 4th 70.1 billion yen

Stock search news

◆The Nikkei Stock Average is on track. On November 16th, the price rose to 33,614 yen, close to the post-bubble burst high of 33,772 yen set in June. The top price was suppressed at 33,488 yen in August and 33,634 yen in September, but it will be interesting to see if the price can break the “33-year high” again in the third time.

◆The reason for the rise in stock prices is the rise in US stocks such as the NY Dow. In the United States, economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been slowing down one after another, and long-term interest rates have fallen as there are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will halt interest rate hikes. Furthermore, business performance was strong, and the House and Senate passed a bill to extend the temporary budget, which was due on the 17th. As a result of these positive factors, the New York Dow rose to a high of $35,051 on the 15th, and is now eyeing the year-to-date high of $35,679 reached on August 1st.

◆As this happens, investor sentiment improves, and expectations for the December market and Christmas rally grow. Looking at the weekly Nikkei Stock Average, it underwent a four-and-a-half month adjustment from mid-June to the end of October, and has since recovered with a double bottom above the neckline of 30,000 yen. The weekly Rank Correlation Index (RCI) also shows that the 9-week and 13-week lines have bottomed out and are showing signs of reversal, and it can be said that it is only a matter of time before the stock surpasses the June high and moves up two levels.

◆However, the market price has skyrocketed in a short period of time due to a combination of favorable factors. Expect some adjustments in the near term. In the daily technical indicators, the RCI (9th, 13th, and 25th lines) is in the high range, and the psychological line is also at 8 wins and 4 losses. As introduced previously, prices rose from the October lows like last year and the year before, but in both cases, the highs occurred around Labor Day and the US Thanksgiving Day (November 23rd this year), and in late November. Adjustments were made from December to December. Taking these into account, I think it would be a good idea to basically “buy on the edge” for the next 1-2 weeks, and to be agile if it’s a short-term investment.

(Written on November 16th, next update scheduled for November 25th)

Information provided:Takaya Tomita’s Chart Club

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“What is the biggest concern of the Tokyo market?”

●Is it really bottoming out? Or a bear market rally?

The Nikkei Stock Average has rebounded sharply since the beginning of November, and the atmosphere in the Tokyo market has recently changed. In terms of factors, it was the rise in US stocks and the depreciation of the yen, but in terms of the chart, the lows on October 4th and 30th formed a double bottom, and the price exceeded the neckline of the October 13th high of 32,533 yen. That’s a big deal. Of course, there was some profit-taking selling while waiting for a return, and there were times when it was a regular occurrence, but once the return selling was completed, the price rose even further, and is now approaching the post-bubble burst high of 33,772 yen set on June 19th. It’s momentum.

The unexpected rise in U.S. stocks is a positive sign for Japanese stocks, as if the sun is shining through a cloud. The background to this is a decline in US long-term interest rates. Many of the US economic indicators released here hint at changes in the economy. Rising unemployment, shrinking consumer credit lines, declining retail sales, and slowing growth in the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) make it inevitable that interest rates will fall sharply. Markets believe that inflation is nearing its end. This trend is encouraging overseas investors to repurchase Japanese stocks.

Then, a big issue arises here. Does this mean that the market has truly bottomed out? In other words, will we enter the financial market after going through an adverse earnings market? Or is it a bear market rally, a self-sustaining rebound within a mass bear market?

●Is the first target for the Nikkei average stock price around 37,000 yen?

If it’s the former, it’s normal to buy and buy. However, if it is the latter, it will begin to decline again without exceeding the second ceiling. This means that the bottoming out is yet to come. This can be said to be the issue of greatest interest in the market right now.

However, if the Nikkei Stock Average breaks above its high after the bursting of the bubble in June, it promises further rise.

The author believes that the country is currently in a state of confusion. U.S. interest rates, the U.S. economy, the dollar-yen, and U.S. stock prices hang in perfect balance in both hands. If even one thing changes dramatically, things will fall apart. It appears that US interest rates are the key factor this time, but it is essential to carefully monitor each of these factors.

Now, if the current market is entering a full-scale upward phase, how far should we expect it to rise? The author estimates that the first target for the Nikkei Stock Average is around 37,000 yen. If this is your first goal, achieving it won’t be too far off.

By the way, what are your future plans? If Japanese stocks are to enter the performance market, lagging behind the US, it is likely that stocks that are expected to achieve record profits will be targeted first, regardless of whether they are growth or value stocks. Stocks with low PER and PBR are good, but you also need to pay close attention to why these values ​​are low. There may be some hidden reason. Now that almost the entire market is rising, perhaps we can hold out hope for stocks that are rising at an even faster pace.

This time, we will focus on the orthodox Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> [東証Ｐ],Japan Airlines <9201> [東証Ｐ]Kubota <6326> [東証Ｐ]Japan Post <6178> [東証Ｐ]We would like to focus on stocks that are well known nationwide and are expected to improve their performance.

Diary of November 17, 2023

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