Scientists Weigh Nuclear Option asโข Asteroid 2024 YR4 Posesโ Ongoing Threat
Prague,Czech Republic – Astronomers โขare considering the drastic measure of โคdetonatingโ a nuclear โdevice โto deflect or destroy asteroidโฃ 2024 YR4,recently discovered in Decemberโ 2024,though current calculationsโค suggest itโ will notโค impact Earth. While the probability ofโ a directโ hit โhas decreased, the asteroid still presents aโข potential โhazard to satellites โขandโค future โlunar missions, โprompting exploration of all possible mitigation strategies.
Initially โคassessed with a 3% chance โof impactingโข Earth – earning it โคthe nicknameโ “City killer” due to the potential scale of destructionโ – โคasteroid 2024 โYR4’sโค trajectory is now โbetter understood, but remains under close โobservation. A definitive โคdetermination ofโ whether the asteroid will encounter Earthโฃ will require furtherโข observations,โ with a refined track expected in 2028.
One proposed, though risky, solution mirrors the plot of โฃthe film โ Armageddon: detonating aโ one-megaton nuclear deviceโข either โon the asteroid’s surface โorโฃ nearbyโฃ to break โคit into smaller pieces. However, experts caution this approach is fraught with uncertainty.
“Ifโฃ the โขexplosion was not enough, a field of debris โฃcouldโข be โcreated that would โendangerโ the Earth evenโค more,” warns Julie Brisset of the Florida Spaceโ Institute.
The primary challenge lies in the unknownโฃ characteristics of the asteroidโ itself. Its weight is currently โestimated between 51 and 711 million kilograms, dependentโข on itsโ density – a figure difficult to ascertain from a distance. An inaccurate weight calculation could renderโข the nuclear deflection ineffective,โค or even worsen the situation byโฃ creating a โคwiderโฃ spread of possibly hazardous fragments.
Duลกan โคmajer, editor-in-chief of โthe Czech astronauticsโ website Kosmonautix.cz, highlights the complexities.”The explosion fragments would be small, so theyโฃ could mostly burn in the atmosphere, but on the other hand, they could be radioactive. Exactly predict the behavior of such an object afterโ theโค explosion is extremely demanding as weโค don’t โknow its physical โขproperties.” Majer โalso points to theโข risks associated โขwith launching and maneuvering the nuclear device into space, requiring โprecise timing โandโ trajectory.
Even if 2024 โฃYR4 avoids Earth, a collision with theโฃ Moonโฃ could generate a โdebris cloud up to aโข thousand times denser than the normal flow of micrometeoroids. A study indicates such an impact couldโ release up to 109 โข kilograms โคof lunar material, with โขsome โparticles potentially reaching Earth within days, posing a significant threat โฃtoโค orbiting satellitesโ and astronauts – equivalent to โคa ten-year dose of interfering meteoroids.
Asteroid 2024 YR4โข remainsโข a focus of planetary defense efforts, โฃwith ongoing observationsโฃ crucial to refining its trajectory and informing potential mitigation strategies.
