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At the start of February, Nettavisen mentioned the record high proportion of optimistic Russians: 71 per cent believe the country is going “in the right direction” and even more support the president’s actions. These figures are the highest ever since the independent Levada Center began its polls in 1996.

Putin’s two support groups

In connection with the two-year marking of the full-scale invasion, Levada chief Denis Volkov is now diving deeper into the statistics. There are various forms of support within Russia.

– About 45 percent of all Russian citizens can be classified as a strong support group. They support the president and the military anyway, and believe that Russia is doing the right thing, says Volkov.

Many of these are older men who receive news through the TV, comments the head of the institute.

– They are not in danger of being called up to the military. In focus groups, such people say they hope Russian troops reach the Polish-Ukrainian border, he adds.

In addition, there is a weaker support group – which consists of around 30 per cent of the Russian population.

– Here we find more women. When they talk about their attitude to the war, they say things like “it’s bad when people die” and “war is always bad”, but “it certainly couldn’t have been any other way” and “the government knows best” , says Volkov, who is regularly quoted in both Western and independent Russian media.

This attitude, that one cannot influence anything and therefore cannot be held responsible for what happens, is one of the most common attitudes towards the war in Russia, adds the Levada leader. This also means that one does not follow the conflict, or spends time trying to understand or worry significantly about it.

– Most people live normal lives. The “special operation” takes place far away, on the western border of a very remote country, says Volkov.

– Rebelling is only harmful to your health. We have heard that opinion more than once in the focus groups over the past two years, comments the gallu manager.

Conflict fatigue: – Steady flow

In May 2022, only 21 percent believed that the war would last longer than a year. Now more than twice as many respondents answer this.

– Most people have got used to the idea that the conflict will not end anytime soon, says Volkov, and adds:

– Participants in focus groups say they have “adapted” to what is happening, and that it “was just scary at first”.

The Levada boss nevertheless notices a small sign of conflict fatigue among Russians.

– Despite continued high support, the first signs of conflict fatigue are appearing. There is a steady stream of respondents who move from the strong support group to the weak one, writes the head of the department.

In 2022, the strong support group was on average 18 percentage points larger than the weak. In 2023, the difference was only 10 percentage points on average.

Does this mean that a major upheaval is underway and that Putin can expect to turn the people against him within a few years? Hardly, says Volkov. Support for the president and the war has been stably high for two years. The only small exception is the partial mobilization in September 2022.

– This shook Russian society. Many thought they could be conscripted into the military because of an unclear formulation of the criteria, says the Levada leader.

A Russian T-90 tank, which President Vladimir Putin called “the best in the world” last year, is said to have shown its vulnerability during an attack in Ukraine.

Will end the conflict – but not at any price

When most Russians understood that they were not being sent to the front line, calm subsided again. There is no rush to end the war.

Admittedly, the proportion who want peace negotiations is rising. 70 percent of Levada’s respondents say they would have supported a hypothetical Putin decision now to end the war immediately. But only 34 percent would support the same if it also meant giving up the occupied territories.

– We are not giving up land, as our respondents say, comments Volkov.

Most Russians perceive the continuation of the war as imposed by the West. The few who oppose the conflict are “rarely willing to publicly state their position”.

– In addition, there have been restrictions on protests since the pandemic. This means that their voice is practically not heard, says Volkov.

“Gather around the flag”

For the vast majority, it is both insignificant and incomprehensible that someone opposes the conflict, he comments. The world view of the two groups is increasingly drifting apart.

– Those who support the war are dominated by positive emotions – pride in their people, hope and confidence in the future. The others often talk about fatigue, indifference, confusion and a feeling of shame about what is happening, says Volkov.

In both 2014 and 2022, when Putin increased Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, his popularity in his homeland skyrocketed:

This sense of pride in one’s own people is not unique to Russia. George HW Bush’s polls went from 59 percent to 89 percent in a few months during the 1991 Gulf War, because there was a consensus in the American elite and in the media that the war was the right thing to do.

The great majority of the American population, who did not have a great interest in foreign policy, more or less automatically supported the war, wrote the sociologist John Zaller at the time. The effect is called “rally around the flag” – people gather around their own flag.

Increased salaries

The general calm and sense of normality in most of Russian society has also been reinforced by increased wages and pensions, which especially the poorer part of the population have benefited from, says Volkov.

Nettavisen has previously discussed how the war has led to a high demand for labour, which in turn has led to Russian wages rising.

Read more: Warns popular Putin: – Luxury trap scheme

– At the same time, the wealthy, urban middle class has felt a change in lifestyle following Western sanctions. They are forced to manage on their own, but also initially had more resources to cope with this, comments Volkov, who also adds that many people in this urban middle class have started to move out of the country, and that it is in this population group that the dissatisfaction with the regime is greatest.

By and large, the country’s resources are now being redistributed in such a way that most Russians – at least for the time being – are satisfied. Fewer and fewer feel that resources are distributed unfairly: From 45 per cent in 2021 to 25 per cent in November 2023.

– A new middle class is ready to take over the place of the previous one, and their well-being is linked to the state budget. They have a moderate optimism, which translates into support for the government and its policies. If these processes develop – this is about resources and determination – then the authorities will be able to count on the support of the majority for a long time, despite the ongoing fighting, concludes Volkov.

2024-02-28 06:09:42
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