Bitcoin Eyes Record High Amidst Market Optimism

Analysts predict a potential surge to $116,000 by month’s end, fueled by macroeconomic factors and possible Fed moves.

Bitcoin is showing signs of strength, with analysts suggesting it could soon test its all-time high of $111,970, perhaps as early as May 22. The cryptocurrency briefly retreated following disappointing U.S. labor market data, but the correction was short-lived.

Summer Hype Follows Weak Period

Historically, the third quarter tends to be a weaker period for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Coinglass data indicates that Bitcoin has seen an average gain of 5.47% in the third quarter since 2013. If this pattern holds, a price point around $111,000 by September 30 is anticipated.

Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance is nearing 70%, up almost 13% this year, indicating continued market favor. Moreover, the sell order wall appears lighter, and Coinbase bitcoin premiums remain high.

#BTC oderbook heatmap

The sell order wall is much lighter.

Coinbase bitcoin premium has dropped a bit, but it still remains high.????????????https://t.co/VGU0kVivZD pic.twitter.com/dZBSXFGy5A

— CoinGlass (@coinglass_com) July 3, 2025

The $108,000 level is seen as a short-term resistance, but analysts are optimistic that it will soon be breached. Weaker labor market data could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, potentially boosting liquidity for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. For instance, Goldman Sachs anticipates a rate cut as early as September (Goldman Sachs, 2025).

Some analysts believe such a Fed move could happen as early as July, benefiting cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. Markets appear to have already priced in a weaker U.S. dollar, with capital flowing into assets like stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin.

Political Pressure on the Fed

Political pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Federal Reserve is another factor. In April, Trump stated: “During the Fed President Jerome Powell, it can’t come fast enough.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen significant capital inflows since May 1. Markus Thielen, Research Manager at 10x Research, suggests that Trump may already have someone in mind to replace the current Fed chair, favoring a looser monetary policy that could favor Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

“It can only be a matter of time to mark Trump a new Fed president leaning towards interest rate cuts, like Arthur Burns in Nixonian times, whose obedience to political pressure contributed to the 1970s inflation to get rid of his release.”

—Markus Thielen, Research Manager of 10x Research

Thielen forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $116,000 by the end of the month due to these macroeconomic factors.

At the state level, ten U.S. states are working on legislation to incorporate cryptocurrencies into their commercial codes and create Bitcoin reserves. Companies are also increasingly investing in Bitcoin, with 26 well-known firms adding the asset to their balance sheets in June alone, bringing the total to 250.

Hungary’s Strict Crypto Regulations

Meanwhile, in Hungary, investors face potential imprisonment for cryptocurrency-related activities, according to fintech.hu. The amended Criminal Code introduces new crimes related to unauthorized crypto services, targeting both service providers and investors.

Penalties range from up to two years for minor offenses to eight years for significant unauthorized activity. Critics argue that the legislation’s timing is problematic, coinciding with the EU’s MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) decree, which aims to provide a unified framework for cryptocurrencies.

Unlike MiCA, the Hungarian regulation was introduced unexpectedly, with many details still unclear. Some critics compare it to drug trafficking, where purchase is penalized, and sellers face even greater risks, even though most users purchased digital devices from taxes.

As a result, domestic crypto companies are considering relocating to countries like Lithuania or Estonia, where regulations are more transparent and supportive. There are also suggestions that Hungary might introduce a concession system, limiting such activities to state-designated actors, similar to the tobacco or casino industries.

While owning and moving cryptocurrencies between one’s own wallets remains legal, converting crypto through unregistered or unauthorized service providers can lead to severe consequences. Therefore, using platforms that comply with the MiCA Regulation and have a valid European license is advisable to avoid legal and financial risks.