Indianapolis

The Raiders’ longstanding reputation as an unserious team and a joke organization could create real fantasy value among Vegas players in 2025.

It’s something I wrote about in June.

This iteration of the Raiders is far more serious than recent versions. General manager John Spytek and franchise overseer/Fox Sports announcer Tom Brady, along with new head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, might not make these Raiders into championship contenders, but they are undoubtedly a legit team with legit decision makers at the helm.

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2024 Las Vegas Raiders Stats (Rank)

Points per game: 18.2 (29th)
Total yards per game: 303.2 (27th)
Plays per game: 62.6 (12th)
Dropbacks per game: 39.3 (4th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.058 (28th)
Rush attempts per game: 222.4 (31st)
Rush EPA per play: -0.283 (32nd)

The new Vegas brass seems less interested in reliving the silver-and-black glory years of four decades ago and more into competing for a postseason berth in the AFC. It’s a nice change for Raiders faithful, and one that could prove surprising to fantasy drafters who have learned to dismiss the Raiders as a bottom-tier team with an offense that proves miserable for fantasy purposes.

Passing offense

QB: Geno Smith, Aidan O’Connell
WR: Jakobi Meyers, Alex Bachman
WR: Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton Jr.
WR: Tre Tucker, Tommy Mellott
TE: Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer

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We’ll start with Geno Smith, every spreadsheet warrior’s favorite quarterback whose appeal is strong enough to turn Seahawks faithful into temporary Raiders fans. The Raiders jumped at the chance to sign Smith in the spring after Smith told Seattle’s front office he wanted out and he wanted out now. Before taking his first snap, Geno might be the greatest Raiders QB of all time.

Smith’s touchdown rate plummeted to 3.5 percent in 2024 as his drop back efficiency fell off a cliff in a woeful Seahawks offense. His fantasy points per drop back was amid ugly company, namely Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph. Geno and the Seahawks were miserable in the red zone: Smith completed a stunning seven of his 27 pass attempts inside the ten yard line. All seven went for touchdowns.

In Chip Kelly’s run-first offense, Geno will look to get back to his efficiency heyday of 2022, when he was top-10 in fantasy points per drop back and sixth in drop back success rate. Smith told reporters in May that Kelly’s offense lends itself to an “explosive and efficient” attack, the direct opposite of what the Seahawks had in 2023 and 2024.

“We’ve always had a rapport with one another, which has made the transition smooth,” Smith, 34, said of Kelly, who recruited Smith when he was the head coach at Oregon. “And so, learning this offense, I’ve been in three different systems in three years. And so I’ve been able to adjust, and that’s something that I’m good at. I can adjust. And so, just an adjustment period, but the offense is really good. I’m looking forward to it. Won’t give too many details, but we’re looking to be explosive and efficient.”

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The game’s most accurate passer by any measure, Smith should be a target for any drafter who passes on the league’s elite quarterbacks and plays the late-round QB game. I have seen the future, and in that future, Geno is highly efficient in a Kelly offense designed in a lab to maximize EPA.

Brock Bowers has every chance to post elite receiver fantasy numbers with such a marked quarterback upgrade. He’ll go from catching passes from the wildly inaccurate duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell to working with Smith, who over the past three seasons leads the NFL in completion rate over expected and catchable ball rate.

You’ll have to take Bowers at the turn of the first and second round if you really want him. Bowers commanded a target on 27 percent of his pass routes as a rookie, a remarkable feat for a tight end (only Jonnu Smith and Dalton Kincaid had a higher rate among tight ends). It didn’t hurt that Bowers ran more than half of his routes from the slot, with slot routes proving slightly more valuable for tight ends in fantasy.

Bowers’ path to legendary upside is clear. More red zone (and green zone) opportunity should unlock a higher ceiling after a rookie campaign that saw Bowers score just five touchdowns. The Raiders fed Bowers a mere eight inside-the-ten targets in 2024. Andrei Iosivas and Diontae Johnson saw more. Give Bowers 15-18 green zone targets and he could easily reach double digit touchdowns in 2025.

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Jakobi Meyers, for now, is one of the most underdrafted wideouts in the game. Bowers is locked in to lead Vegas in targets, but Meyers will be close behind as Geno’s No. 2 guy. With the worst quarterback play this side of Indianapolis, Meyers in 2024 was 12th among receivers in receptions and 17th in receiving yards. He was top-40 in yards per route, which, all things considered, isn’t half bad. Meyers posted nice-enough numbers despite 26 percent of his targets being deemed uncatchable. The hyper-accurate Geno will give Meyers top-15 fantasy upside in Kelly’s offense.

Jack Bech is a good story coming out of TCU. I’m rooting for him. I also can’t help but notice that his college peripherals were outright hideous on every level; I’m not sure how he was drafted at all, much less in the second round. Maybe he’ll be a big-play, downfield guy for Geno. Whatever happens, he won’t challenge Meyers for WR1 status.

The sicko part of me — which constitutes most of me — is interested in rookie WR Tommy Mellott out of Montana State. Brady stumped for Mellott as a late-round draft pick after comparing him to former New England teammate Julian Edelman. If Brady wants Mellott to be a thing in the Vegas offense, he will be a thing in the Vegas offense.

As a QB at Montana State, Mellott threw for 6,016 yards and ran for 3,517 yards over four seasons. He comes into the NFL with some wideout experience, and is expected to primarily play receiver if he makes the Raiders roster. Raiders beat writers have said Mellott could be used in the backfield, from the slot, and even under center in 2025. “I wouldn’t pigeonhole him right now,” Raiders college scouting director Brandon Yeargan said of Mellott. “I would say we view him as a receiver that’s going to have a lot of value in the kicking game, potentially as a returner, as a cover player, maybe play some quarterback, too. We’re looking (at him) really as an athlete/receiver, but he’s a unique guy.”

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Mellott will be well worth monitoring in deeper fantasy formats.

Rushing offense

RB: Ashton Jeanty, Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick
OL (L-R): Colton Miller, Dylan Parham, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Alex Capa, DJ Glaze

As upgrades go, it doesn’t get more dramatic than going from RB1 Zamir White in 2025 to RB1 Ashton Jeanty in 2025. White, in case you missed it, was by most measures the worst running back in the league last season, and one of the worst backs of the modern era. Out of 109 rushers in 2024, White was dead last in EPA. He has big muscles, which sold many fantasy managers last summer, but he’s not an NFL-viable rusher.

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This won’t be complicated. The Raiders used the sixth pick in the 2025 draft on the massively productive Jeanty because they plan to center their offense around the rookie after the Eagles rode Saquon Barkley to a title last season and tricked other teams into thinking they could replicate the Eagles’ model. They can’t — they won’t — but they are bound and determined to try.

Chip Kelly’s Ohio State offense in 2024 led the nation (by a wide margin) in both rushing success rate and rushing EPA. Kelly’s pedigree as a producer of gaudy rushing stats is unmatched. From LaMichael James to Kenjon Barner to LeSean McCoy — and even Carlos Hyde, to an extent — the running back has been the focal point of the Kelly system for years and years. It will be no different with Jeanty, who piled up nearly 4,800 rushing yards and 50 touchdowns over three years at Boise State.

The Raiders this spring went out and signed Raheem Mostert, who was the second most inefficient rusher of the 2024 season, trailing only White, who likely won’t be on the Week 1 roster. Right on cue, Pete Carroll told Raiders beat writers the team would not “rely on one guy” in the backfield this season. Then The Athletic’s Tashan Reed reported Mostert — who has 44 receptions over his past 29 games — will function as the primary third down back in the Vegas backfield.

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The mere suggestion that Jeanty won’t see every touch in the Raiders backfield will be rejected by those who view him as the second coming of Jim Brown. It might be worth noting that Jeanty’s raw receiving numbers and his receiving metrics were miserable in his final season at Boise State. He had 46 catches for 589 yards and five scores in 2023, however, and I’m told by Jeanty backers that’s all that matters. Color me at least somewhat skeptical.

The assumption, I think, should be that Jeanty will at least split pass-catching work with Mostert to start the season. Maybe that changes once tough-running Jeanty — 12 years Mostert’s junior — shows the Raiders how productive he can be after the catch. Mostert, for his part, profiles as a reasonable late-round bench stash who would likely be the Raiders’ lead back if Jeanty misses time in 2025.

2025 Las Vegas Raiders Win Total

DraftKings over/under: 7.5
Pick: Over

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The addition of Carroll and Kelly and a solid draft and free agency from the Vegas front office makes me somewhat bullish on the Raiders for 2025. They finally have a viable starting quarterback, a potentially legendary running back, and the best tight end in football. With league average defense, I’d be surprised if the Raiders don’t get to nine wins this season. They are, of course, one Geno Smith injury away from winning four games in 2025.