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Economic commentator Tomio Sugimura
“International money managers believe in toughness!”

● Net purchases of 1.84 trillion yen in the 2nd to 3rd week of January

The managers of international money are tough. The Japanese world of duty and humanity does not apply to them. According to a commentary from a major securities company, the reason for the onslaught of foreigners since the beginning of the year was “the Noto Peninsula earthquake.” It is a such a fool? In a normal sense, it would be normal for an investor to feel intimidated when looking at such a tragic situation.

But they were different. The Bank of Japan’s policy change will be postponed. As a result, the yen depreciates in exchange rates. It seems he decided so. In fact, in the first week of January, early in the new year, foreign investors were net short by 113.7 billion yen (spot and futures total), but in the second week it was 1,444.8 billion yen, and in the third week it was 398 billion yen. This is a ferocious net buying trend.

Of course, the reasons why foreigners are becoming more bullish include not only the effects of Japan’s revitalization strategy becoming more apparent, but also changes in the mindset of managers, the earning power of companies, a public-private joint strategy to regain 1x PBR, and the new NISA (small investment This may include the introduction of a tax exemption system), the return of manufacturing to Japan, a rush to build new semiconductor-related factories, and a recovery in inbound tourism.

Furthermore, the new East-West Cold War structure and the rise of nationalism (friend sharing -> supply chains for semiconductors, electric car batteries, etc. are completed only by the Western camp) are bringing “benefits” to Japan. This can be seen as a pattern that is the opposite of the end of the Cold War structure between East and West in 1989-1990, which triggered bashing, passing, and nothing.

After all, during the “lost 30 years,” Japan and its people all became poor. Household assets in the US (2.3 trillion yen) are 7.4 times that of Japan, and the market capitalization of the US market (7,560 trillion yen) is 8.4 times that of the Tokyo market. No, 30 years of political inconsistency and mistakes in monetary policy (deflation and neglect of the yen’s appreciation) have led to an irreversible situation.

The market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven (the top seven companies in the US market by market capitalization) is 1,862 trillion yen. It is twice the scale of the Tokyo market (1,658 companies are listed on the prime market).appleis 447 trillion yen, Microsoftis 439 trillion yen, which is comparable to the Tokyo market with just these two companies.

●The movement to raise the market capitalization of Japanese companies continues!

No, it’s a very sad story. By the way, the market capitalization of the 7 Samurai companies (the top 7 companies in the Tokyo market by market capitalization) remains at 142 trillion yen. It’s only 1/13th of the Magnificent Seven. Of course, there is no need to worry. They claim that the market capitalization of Japanese companies has begun to rise.toyota motor vehicle <7203> [東証Ｐ]is teslawill follow.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines with 190 yen dividend <9104> [東証Ｐ]Kawasaki Kisen has a market capitalization of 1.9 trillion yen and a dividend of 200 yen. <9107> [東証Ｐ]Its market capitalization remains at 1.7 trillion yen.Panasonic Holdings <6752> [東証Ｐ]is 3.4 trillion yen, Nomura Holdings <8604> [東証Ｐ]is 2.4 trillion yen. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Panasonic, and Nomura’s PBR is below 1x.

Many overseas funds have raised their share of Japanese stocks from underweight to neutral. This may be due to the fact that funds that were destined for the Chinese market are being diverted to the Japanese market. This can also be said to be a product of the new East-West Cold War structure (the United States prohibits investments in Chinese stocks such as public pension funds).

Coconara is a small item preferred by individual investors. <4176> [東証Ｇ]Smartphone support <9342> [東証Ｇ]、Ｇ－ＦＡＣＴＯＲＹ <3474> [東証Ｇ]is paying attention to. Coconara rose to a high of 2,899 yen (March 22) immediately after its listing in March 2021. However, after that it entered a long-term slump. It hit a low of 282 yen on August 17th last year.

During this period, sales increased fivefold. The forecast is for the fiscal year ending August 2019 to be 1,138 million yen, and for the fiscal year ending August 2024 to be 5,848 million yen (operating income is 10 million yen). However, there was little profit. This is probably the result of focusing on sales growth. However, from now on, the company will shift to a management system that takes profits into consideration (the company posted an operating profit of 97 million yen in the first quarter).

Diary January 26, 2024

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2024-01-28 00:15:00
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Economic commentator Tomio Sugimura
“Tech (semiconductor) continues to lead the rally!”

●The market capitalization of core stocks continues to increase!

The exchange rate is trending toward a weaker yen, with the dollar being at 148 yen. While the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy revisions were postponed in consideration of the Noto Peninsula earthquake, the expected timing of interest rate cuts in the United States has been pushed back and the number of cuts has been reduced (from the original six to three?). Well, it can be seen as a reversal.

Still, it’s good news for the stock market.toyota motors <7203> [東証Ｐ]is rising along with trade. It was ranked 4th in the Tokyo market trading value ranking on the 18th. As you know, it is the top company in market capitalization in the Tokyo market. However, its market capitalization is only 48.1 trillion yen.microsoftappleare over 430 trillion yen each.

teslaAfter all, it’s 99.7 trillion yen. Is Toyota lagging behind? That’s probably right. In addition to the strong yen, it was difficult to buy due to the Daihatsu Motor Corporation scandal, but foreigners, mainly those with U.S. pension plans, are now buying. American institutional investors are restricted from investing in Chinese stocks. Public funds are prohibited. That money is probably going toward Japanese stocks.

By the way, Sony Group is the second largest company by market capitalization. <6758> [東証Ｐ]NTT in 3rd place <9432> [東証Ｐ]Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group ranked 4th. <8306> [東証Ｐ]Keyence in 5th place <6861> [東証Ｐ]Tokyo Electron in 6th place <8035> [東証Ｐ]Contains. However, the market capitalization remains at 13 trillion to 18 trillion yen.

Compared to American companies, the scale is too small.Honda <7267> [東証Ｐ]8.6 trillion yen, Daikin Industries <6367> [東証Ｐ]is 7.1 trillion yen, Renesas Electronics <6723> [東証Ｐ]is 5.6 trillion yen, disco <6146> [東証Ｐ]is 4.4 trillion yen. If this happens, we will be swallowed up by the Magnificent Seven (the top seven American companies by market capitalization).

●Nomura Holdings aims to increase PBR by 1x!

After all, the market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven is over 1,700 trillion yen. I think the market capitalization of Japan’s core companies has started to increase.Nomura Holdings, considered a “hero” in the securities industry <8604> [東証Ｐ]Its market capitalization is only 2.3 trillion yen. PBR is 0.67x, below 1x. In the long term, the company will aim to increase PBR to 1x (1,092 yen).

The American market is NVIDIA.High-tech companies (giant IT companies) such as , Apple, and Microsoft are strong. It’s semiconductor related. In Japan, against the backdrop of friend sharing (a movement to complete the supply chain with only the West), the manufacturing industry is returning to Japan, and the construction of new factories (particularly semiconductors) is accelerating.

Support for Microsoft’s Windows 10 will end in 2025. PC users will upgrade before the deadline.intelQualcomm semiconductors for use in PCswill introduce smartphone chips equipped with AI (artificial intelligence) to support the phenomenal growth of the AI ​​market (expected to grow at an annual rate of over 70%).

Japanese companies in this field (large-scale language models) include NTT and NEC. <6701> [東証Ｐ]IBIDEN <4062> [東証Ｐ]and so on.In addition, Tomogawa Corporation, which supplies semiconductor materials, <3878> [東証Ｓ]Resonac Holdings <4004> [東証Ｐ]Dexerials <4980> [東証Ｐ]etc. will be enriched.

In addition, ROHM’s power semiconductor <6963> [東証Ｐ]Qualtech, which handles inspection of automotive semiconductors. <9165> [東証Ｇ]is also attracting attention.Laprobe, a contract company for semiconductor testing processes <6627> [東証Ｓ]is unusually high. A new factory is under construction in Kumamoto.

Furthermore, NVIDIA has a market share of over 80% in GPUs (image processing semiconductors) and AI chips. Manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC)In charge of TSMC suppliers Resonac, IBIDEN, and Taiyo Holdings <4626> [東証Ｐ]can enjoy the benefits.Sakura Internet is an NVIDIA related company. <3778> [東証Ｐ]NTT Data Group <9613> [東証Ｐ]There is.

Diary January 19, 2024

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2024-01-21 00:15:00
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RAKAN RICERCA Representative Director and Chairman Tomokazu Murase
Individual-driven search with next year’s theme and new NISA in mind

●Nikkei Stock Average moves towards post-bubble highs

The Nikkei Stock Average has been stuck within a range between the 25-day and 75-day moving averages for about two weeks, due to market sentiment of wanting to see the direction of Japan-U.S. monetary policy. However, after the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (FOMC) meeting on December 12-13 and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, the market opened a window on the 20th and rapidly rose, and after the bubble that was created on November 20th. The price showed movement approaching a high. After that, there were concerns about short-term overheating and selling began to take profits, and the stock has recently stalled again at the 25-day line. The US market is also prone to profit taking ahead of the Christmas holidays, and the New York Dow, which had been hitting new highs, fell sharply by 475 points on the 20th, failing to achieve its 10th consecutive rise.

As more and more market participants begin their holidays after Christmas, the flow of overseas investors may also be limited. Therefore, although there are strong expectations for year-end sales, it seems likely that the search will be centered on individuals. A corner of value stocks has weakened due to adjustment in holdings, and it is easy to look for high-tech stocks that are showing signs of rebounding. In addition to themes that are expected to play an active role next year, such as generative AI, the search for stocks with an eye on the new NISA (Small Investment Tax Exemption System) is likely to become the market’s mainstay.

●“5 stocks to watch” that are expected to perform well

◆ＫＯＫＵＳＡＩ　ＥＬＥＣＴＲＩＣ <6525> [東証Ｐ]
A semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturer established as an independent entity of Hitachi Kokusai Electric’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment division. Our business revolves around film formation processes and treatment (film quality improvement) processes. With the start of operations at the new Toyama factory in the fall of 2024, capacity is expected to expand significantly. The cumulative second quarter (April-September) results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2014 showed a decline in sales and profits due to investment restraints by semiconductor device manufacturers, but the most recent second quarter (July-September) was lower than the first quarter (April-September). -June) The stock price continued its gradual rebound from its low of 2,783 yen on December 12th. The price has recently exceeded the 25-day line, which is the top resistance, and we are hoping for a further increase after breaking through the high, with the short-term target being 3,440 yen, the highest price since listing on November 27th.

◆Suzuki <7269> [東証Ｐ]
One of the top two light vehicles in Japan. Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. announced that it will suspend shipments of all vehicle models produced in Japan and overseas due to the certification fraud issue. Sales have been showing signs of rebounding recently, partly due to the view that this will be a tailwind for the company, which competes with light vehicles.On the other hand, Toyota Motor Corporation <7203> [東証Ｐ]stock prices are weakening, and it is easy to notice rebalancing movements within the sector. The stock price continued to adjust after peaking at the year-to-date high of 6,577 yen on November 13th, and was sold to 5,436 yen on December 14th. Since then, the price has started to rebound with the 200-day moving average acting as a support line, and has recently exceeded the 25-day and 75-day lines.

◆Mitsui O.S.K. Lines <9104> [東証Ｐ]
The stock continued to rebound strongly this week, and on the weekend 22nd, it hit a year-to-date high for the first time in about three months since September 20th. Ocean Network Express (ONE), a joint venture between three shipping companies, has suspended its operations in the Red Sea for the time being as Yemen’s Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked cargo ships in the Red Sea. . Expansion of voyage periods due to route changes is likely to lead to higher freight rates, and as the impact becomes more apparent, investor interest will likely increase. The stock price is likely to be around 5,650 yen, which is twice the adjustment range from September’s high of 4,655 yen to November’s low of 3,669 yen. Due to its high dividend yield, it will also attract attention in connection with the new NISA.

◆Visional <4194> [東証Ｐ]
We operate a job search site specializing in high-class human resources, where scouts are sent directly from top companies and top headhunters. On the 14th, the listing market classification was changed from TSE Growth to Prime. Since it was a major growth stock, it continues to attract the attention of individual investors. Furthermore, with the transition from sluggish growth to prime, the inflow of funds from domestic and foreign institutional investors will likely become more noticeable in the future. After adjusting to 7,610 yen on December 7th, the stock price has been rebounding with support from the 200-day line, which is at the same level, and is now within range of January’s year-to-date high of 9,950 yen.

◆Japan Business Systems <5036> [東証Ｓ]
microsoftAn independent system integrator with strengths in cloud solutions including . Stock revenue, which is expected to generate stable sales, accounts for 65% of sales. In the fiscal year ending September 2023, which transitioned to consolidated accounting, sales and profits increased compared to the fiscal year ending September 2022 (non-consolidated), and all profits reached record highs. Due to continued business expansion, the company is expected to achieve record high profits in the fiscal year ending September 2024. The stock price had been capped at the 200-day line, but in mid-December it opened a window and rose sharply, breaking through the resistance line. With the 52-week line acting as a support line, the June high price of 1,760 yen and February high price of 1,970 yen will be the targets.

(Diary of December 22, 2023)

★From New Year’s Day to the 4th, we will deliver 27 2024 “New Year Special Features” all at once. Please stay tuned.
→→ See the list of articles in “New Year Special”

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2023-12-22 23:00:00
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