Pakistan On Track toโ Meet IMF Goals Despite Floodโฃ Challenges, New โReport Finds
Islamabad, September 21, 2025 – Pakistan is currently projected to meet the economicโ targets โset by โthe Internationalโค Monetary Fund (IMF), according to a new report released by Topline Research, despite recent devastating floods and ongoing โinflationary pressures.The analysis, published in Dawn today, indicates the nation is making progress on IMF-mandated reforms and actively pursuing foreign investment inโข key emerging โฃsectors.
The report notes that key economic indicators are “well within the IMF’s projections.” pakistan is actively courting investment in offshore drilling, mining, and Web 3.0 technologies, highlighted by the successful Pakistan Mineral Investment Forum โข2025 held in April, which attracted over โ5,000 delegates from more than 50 countries. Renewed interestโฃ from the United States in Pakistan’s offshore hydrocarbon resources is also seen as a potential boon to the country’sโข growth. The Reko Diq mining project, a flagship initiative,โ is anticipated to reach financial closeโ in the โcoming weeks.
Though, the report acknowledges significant challenges posed by recent floods and heavy rains impacting much of Pakistan, excluding Balochistan and โAzad Kashmir.โ While the intensity of the current flooding is less severe than past events, Topline cautions thatโ it could temporarily disrupt โฃeconomic reforms. The economyโ is expected to recover in the near term, โคbut the floods are projected to increase relief spendingโฃ and strain government revenues, leading to a revised fiscal deficit forecast of 4.8% โฃof GDP for FY26, upโ from โฃa previous estimate of 4.1%.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is now expected to collect Rs13.6 trillion in โขtax revenues for FY26, a decrease โคfrom the earlier target of Rs14.1 trillion. Consequently,GDP growth โis forecast to โbe between 2.75% and 3.25%,โข down from the previous range of 3.5% to 4%. Agriculture growth has been downgraded to 2.6% due to expectedโ crop lossesโฃ of 15% for rice and 10% for cotton.
Despite these revisions,โ the current account deficit is โexpected to remain within the 0-0.5%โ range of GDP.โฃ Topline revised its import growth forecast to 10% (from 9%) and loweredโ its export growth projection to 1% (from 4%),while โฃanticipating remittances to grow by 6%.
The central bank is now likely to maintain the policy rate unchanged through FY26,โค revising a previous assumption of a potential rate hike. This decision is attributed to risks stemming from food inflation due to the floods, rising import bills, and geopolitical uncertainties, including recent tensions in israel and โฃQatar, which could impact oil prices.
An IMF mission is scheduled to โฃassess Pakistan’s economic performance beginning September 25th, as the countryโข continues to navigate the challenges of floods and inflation.
