With a sputtering economy, elections in the spring and a centenary in October, everyone in Turkey knew that the country would have an eventful 2023. The devastating earthquakes in February also made it a transformative year. A look back.

On October 29, 2023, thousands of Istanbul residents gathered along the waters of the Bosphorus. An air show, a parade of naval ships and a final fireworks display awaited them there. All this to celebrate the centenary of the Republic of Turkey.

But the fighter jets performed their acrobatics a few kilometers away and the fireworks remained virtually out of sight from the general public. Who had a good view? President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It was somehow symbolic, because Erdogan once again attracted all the attention last year. First of all because of his election win last May, but also because of his role in the earthquake drama and the economic malaise. Exactly the three things that kept Turkey in its grip over the past year.

Painful correction due to economic headwinds

For many Turks, 2023 ends as it started: with expensive groceries, high bills and worries about the economy. The year before was no different and the coming months do not bode well for the wallet. This is because drastic measures are needed to get the economy back on track.

In recent years, Erdogan has relied on a recipe of cheap loans, interest rate cuts and the belief that these interest rate cuts can combat skyrocketing inflation. That resulted in an unworkable situation.

After the elections, things changed course: there was a new Minister of Finance, the entire top of the Turkish central bank was replaced, taxes were increased, the availability of cheap loans was reduced and interest rates were sharply increased.

But just as it takes time for an oil tanker to change course, it also takes a long time for the package of measures to have an effect. The Turkish central bank expects to end this year with an inflation rate of 65 percent and next year with 36 percent.

Turkish opposition is wrong in elections

A sputtering economy usually spells the end for a sitting prime minister or president. And in the run-up to last May’s elections, the end of the Erdogan era seemed to be in sight. He had been doing poorly in the polls for months. Everything seemed to be going well in the opposition camp, mainly thanks to cooperation between several parties.

The Turkish opposition seemed so convinced of its case that it voted in November last year plan presented for the period after Erdogan, complete with a return to a parliamentary form of government and all kinds of suggestions for a new constitution.

When Erdogan and his government failed after the devastating earthquakes of February 6, the path to electoral victory seemed wide open for the opposition. Things turned out differently.

Erdogan understood better than the opposition that many voters are not only influenced by the poor economic situation or the mediocre government action in the aftermath of the earthquakes. The president also cleverly offered religious conservatism and Turkish nationalism as one package. His propaganda machine, an unfair playing field and election gifts did the rest.

Turkey was ill-prepared for an earthquake

On February 6, Turkey and Syria were hit by two major earthquakes. The disaster affected an area the size of the Netherlands and Belgium combined. It caused enormous damage in eleven Turkish provinces. More than 50,000 residents were killed and twice as many people were injured.

Turkey was insufficiently prepared for the disaster and the relief and rescue operation did not go according to plan. In the first days after the earthquakes, it also became apparent that Turkey had hardly built more safely, despite the lessons from the previous major earthquake in 1999. This was partly due to poor compliance with the rules and too little supervision.

The first new homes have now been completed in the earthquake area. Erdogan said earlier this month that 46,000 new homes will be completed this year, significantly less than the promised 319,000. A total of 650,000 new houses must be built in the affected area. But when that number will be achieved remains a matter of speculation.

Erdogan campaigned this year with the slogan ‘Continue on the chosen path’. Whether that route is still satisfactory will have to be seen in March. Then there are local elections.

A few days after the disaster, Recep Tayyip Erdogan began a tour of the affected cities in the earthquake zone. Photo: Getty Images

2023-12-30 14:54:10
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