Asteroid 2024 YR4: Moon Collision Could Unleash Meteor Shower
Scientists are studying a potential lunar collision in 2032 involving a sizable asteroid, 2024 YR4. This event may trigger a substantial meteor shower and pose a threat to satellites around Earth. The impact would be the largest of its kind in millennia, with potentially significant effects.
Impact on Earth
The asteroid, measuring approximately 60 meters wide, could strike the Moon. Recent data indicates a 4.3% chance of this occurring, according to observations from the James Webb Space Telescope. Earlier assessments had briefly considered a direct Earth impact, but this possibility has been dismissed.
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The impact’s energy would be similar to a large nuclear blast. The resulting debris could include up to 100 million kilograms of material ejected from the Moon’s surface. This material, if propelled towards Earth, might imperil satellites. In 2023, there were over 8,000 active satellites orbiting Earth (Statista).
Potential Hazards
Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario in Canada, the study’s lead author, highlighted the significance of the impact. He noted that rocks the size of millimeters or centimeters, moving at tens of thousands of meters per second, could be satellite-killers. The current models estimate over 1,000 times the usual number of meteors following the collision.
“A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,”
—Paul Wiegert
The analysis predicts that the lunar impact could produce a “spectacular” meteor shower visible from Earth. The odds of a direct impact on the Moon’s near side remain relatively low, at about two percent, as emphasized by Wiegert. The asteroid is not expected to reappear until 2028, delaying the opportunity for further study.
Future Implications
In the event of an increased likelihood of a Moon impact, there might be enough time to prepare a mitigation strategy. Wiegert believes that such a plan would be considered. The asteroid has about half the width and 10% of the mass of Dimorphos, which was successfully impacted by NASA’s DART mission in 2022.
If 2024 YR4 does head toward the Moon, it would be “a good target” for additional planetary defense testing. If not, close approaches near Earth can be “dangerous,” Wiegert cautions. The study, published on the arXiv database, has also been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.