Surging Tanker Rates and Margins Drive Up Diesel Prices for Logistics

Crude Tanker Rates Exceed 500,000 Dollars Daily Amid Middle East Shipping Disruptions

Global average earnings for crude oil tankers surpassed 500,000 US dollars per day in early October, reaching ten times their 2025 average, according to data from Clarksons and an analysis by Rico Luman, lead industry economist for transport and logistics at ING. The sharp escalation stems from the ongoing conflict with Iran, regional shipping choke points, and severe vessel capacity shortages across major international trade lanes.

Transport costs for moving crude from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam surged from approximately 2 US dollars per barrel in 2025 to more than 35 US dollars per barrel by September 2026. ING highlighted that this spike exceeds all previously recorded market levels. The steepest rate increases targeted Suezmax vessels and very large crude carriers, known as VLCCs, which carry up to 2 million barrels per voyage.

Geopolitical Strains and Route Adjustments Constrain Global Oil Supply

Tanker rates climbed rapidly as maritime traffic encountered persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab strait, and the Golf of Aden. Shippers scrambled for available vessel capacity to secure alternative routes and new suppliers, driving increased demand for American crude providers. Logistics operators adapted by utilizing a protected corridor through Omani territorial waters, running shuttle services around the Strait of Hormuz, and executing ship-to-ship transfers outside the primary chokepoints.

Simultaneously, war-risk insurance premiums for high-threat zones soared. Vessel supply remained critically tight due to record low newbuild order volumes through 2022 and 2023, compounded by the ongoing transfer of aging tonnage into Russia’s shadow fleet. In its September report, the International Energy Agency noted that diesel and gasoil exports from the Gulf region languished at roughly one-quarter of pre-war volumes, with normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted.

Product tanker earnings also tripled compared to 2025 averages, though gains remained more moderate than those recorded in the crude sector. Brent cash prices averaged 114.16 US dollars per barrel in September 2026, up from a 2025 annual mean of 69.14 US dollars, per US Energy Information Administration figures. Brent traded at 125.44 US dollars on October 6, while futures pointed lower at an expected 105 US dollars for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 84 US dollars for 2027.

Rising Refining Margins and Freight Costs Push Diesel Prices to Record Highs

Combined pressure from exorbitant freight expenses and elevated refining margins drove diesel prices upward across major markets. Europe’s diesel crack spread—the price gap between diesel and crude—sat roughly two-and-a-half times higher than the 2025 average, according to ING. Elevated transport fees and high margins threaten to inflate baseline diesel pump prices by more than 0.50 US dollars per liter.

British government figures showed average diesel hitting 199.52 pence per liter during the week of October 5, marking the highest level since records began compared to 144.19 pence at the start of the year. European operators faced stretched supply chains, increasingly sourcing diesel from origins up to 19,000 kilometers away.

Orderbook Expansion and the Outlook for Maritime Freight Markets

New vessel orders doubled this year, with the current orderbook reaching 28 percent of the global fleet compared to 14 percent previously. Most of these contracted ships are scheduled for delivery in 2028 or 2029, arriving after the peak of the current price cycle. ING emphasized that market direction depends heavily on geopolitical developments and the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, which could sustain high tanker earnings through 2027.

Logistics operators face persistent cost pressures at the pump as high freight rates and refining margins offset any potential dips in crude benchmarks. Transport firms looking to manage rising fuel expenses often review fuel escalation clauses in customer contracts and implement operational efficiency measures such as driver training, idle reduction, optimized route planning, and tire pressure management.

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