Sunday Patrick Kayongo Links Elite Politics to Tax Revenue in the Global South
Domestic revenue mobilization falls below potential across much of the Global South due to entrenched political constraints, elite bargains, and institutional legacies, according to a recent doctoral dissertation published by Sunday Patrick Kayongo. The completed research, examined by Dr. Kristina Strohmaier, integrates political economy analysis, fiscal instrument design, and methodological critique to explain and improve domestic revenue mobilization in low-capacity states.
Elite Cohesion Determines Fiscal Performance in Global South Countries
The dissertation consists of five studies divided across different aspects of fiscal performance. The first three papers focus directly on the politics of taxation. Chapter 2 develops a framework that embeds enforcement outcomes in elite power configurations. Expanding this focus, Chapter 3 applies the framework to Uganda covering the period from 1962 to 2023, identifying elite cohesion as one of the most consistent long-run determinants of fiscal performance.
Chapter 4 broadens the empirical analysis across 42 Global South countries. The findings indicate that concentrated executive authority undermines revenue capacity, whereas inclusive elite arrangements strengthen it.
Research Evaluates Vehicle Import Duty Reform and Empirical Methods
The final two papers of the research broaden the scope to examine specific fiscal instruments and empirical methods. Chapter 5 evaluates Uganda’s 2018 vehicle import duty reform as a quasi-carbon tax. This chapter introduces the concept of a “tax-base double dividend,” defined as environmental levies that expand fiscal space while modestly reducing emissions.
Finally, Chapter 6 conducts a meta-regression of bunching-based elasticity of taxable income estimates. The review reveals heterogeneity and selective reporting that call into question the reliability of widely used methods. Overall, the completed doctoral work argues that durable domestic revenue mobilization requires technical reforms aligned with inclusive political settlements and methodologically rigorous evaluation.