Strait of Hormuz oil tanker flows near pre-war volumes, Kpler data shows
Yet, maritime traffic remains far from normal as Iranian attacks persist, forcing commercial vessels to rely on U.S. military protection and exceptional routing procedures to complete their transits.
Daily Tanker Flows Near Pre-War Volumes Despite Regional Conflict
Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler shows the seven-day average of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz reached 14.19 million barrels per day. That figure edges close to the pre-war baseline of 17.13 million barrels daily, aligning with estimates from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs pegging total Persian Gulf flows at 17.5 million barrels. These metrics were reported as producers and shippers adapt to the persistent threat environment.
This volume recovery occurs while commercial ships face weekly assaults from drones and anti-ship missiles. U.S. naval forces continue patrolling transit lanes and coordinating passage schedules with shipping companies. Meanwhile, regional exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, have pushed total daily export volumes via the strait and alternative paths to roughly 13 million barrels per day since the beginning of the month. That marks the highest aggregate since February, when the region exported about 19 million barrels daily, according to ship-tracker Hawks data.
Logistical Workarounds Reduce Iranian Power over Energy Corridors
Regional producers successfully engineered logistical workarounds to bypass traditional choke points, reducing Tehran's power over global energy corridors. U.S. maritime interdiction prevents Iranian crude from accessing international buyers, leaving state revenues under severe strain.
Tehran Maintains Weekly Assaults While U.S. Patrols Escort Fleets
Iran continues utilizing the strategic waterway as a pressure point, orchestrating roughly 30 drone strikes and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial traffic since August, according to a Western security official cited by the New York Times. While many projectiles miss their targets, at least four commercial vessels sustained direct hits during a recent ten-day window.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly claimed responsibility for explosions along Iran’s southern coast, stating through state media broadcasts that operational units strike targets inside the strait every 24 hours to challenge transit compliance. Capital Economics chief economist Hamad Hussain said that without a decisive resolution to the conflict, global energy price risks remain heavily skewed upward due to persistent supply vulnerabilities.
