The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies, is effectively closed to commercial shipping following retaliatory actions by Iran after the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to shipping data and government assessments released Tuesday.
The closure, though not formally announced by Tehran, has already triggered a surge in oil and gas prices and raised concerns about significant disruptions to the world’s energy markets. Ship trafficking data indicates a 70 percent drop in vessels traversing the strait since Saturday’s attack, as reported by FreightWaves.
Located between Iran and the Musandam Peninsula – shared by Oman and the United Arab Emirates – the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 104 miles long and narrows to just 21 nautical miles at its most constricted point. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait daily, making it one of the most strategically important choke points globally.
The U.S. Government estimates that approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran are entirely reliant on the strait for oil exports, whereas Iraq and Saudi Arabia are almost completely dependent on it. Any prolonged disruption could have cascading effects on economies worldwide.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, spiked by as much as 13 percent on Monday before easing slightly, and was trading above $78 a barrel early Tuesday, after spending much of the past year below $70. U.S.-traded oil is up more than 6.5 percent. Natural gas prices have also soared, increasing by 50 percent, driven in part by production shutdowns at facilities owned by Qatar Energies following reported drone attacks by Iranian forces.
In response to the escalating tensions, the Donald Trump administration has initiated “Operation Epic Fury,” targeting Iran’s navy and reportedly destroying nine warships, in an effort to counter Iran’s ability to fully block the strait. As detailed by the Council on Foreign Relations, this action underscores the high stakes involved in the conflict.
While the U.S. Is attempting to secure the waterway, Iran possesses the capability to mine the strait, effectively closing it for an extended period. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that “Iran is like the scorpion on the frog’s back. If they close the Strait of Hormuz, they die with the frog.” He estimates that clearing such mines would be a “weeks-to-months thing, not a days-to-weeks thing.”
Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are limited. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, capable of carrying 5 million barrels per day, has a spare capacity of approximately 2.4 million barrels per day – less than half of the country’s exports. The United Arab Emirates also has a pipeline, but it only handles half of its export volume. These limited alternatives mean that many nations, particularly in Asia and Europe, face potential delays in receiving oil shipments.
On Sunday, OPEC+ members agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day in April, a move intended to mitigate the potential for runaway price increases. Still, the effectiveness of this measure remains uncertain, particularly if Iran persists in its closure of the strait and simultaneously halts its own oil exports, a critical source of revenue for the Iranian regime.
