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STF Begins Historic Judgment with Far-Reaching Implications for bolsonaro, Allies, and 2026 Elections
the Supreme Federal Court (STF) has commenced a landmark judgment concerning the actions of former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies related to the events surrounding the 2022 election and the subsequent unrest. The trial’s outcome will determine the legal fate of those involved and is already substantially impacting the political landscape, notably regarding potential right-wing candidates for the 2026 presidential election.
A central point of contention is the denunciation made by Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, a former aide to Bolsonaro. While some defendants, including Bolsonaro himself, are attempting to annul the agreement, the prosecutor General’s Office (PGR) is advocating for a minimal reduction in sentencing, citing the “superficial and poorly enlightening” nature of military testimonies. The defense teams are leveraging inconsistencies in Cid’s testimony, including his arrest during questioning and threats of re-detention following omissions, to challenge the validity of the denunciation.
The examination, initiated by the Federal Police in 2023, originated with evidence discovered on Lieutenant Colonel Cid’s cell phone and gained momentum with his testimony. Further evidence revealed that Bolsonaro presented a plan to Armed Forces commanders to overturn his electoral defeat, a plan that was ultimately rejected.
Legal experts emphasize the significance of the judgment beyond its immediate legal consequences. FGV professor Rubens Glezer notes that the ruling will ”give a limit of what is tolerable in the constitutional pact,” asserting that denying election results and inciting the population with false facts are incompatible with a liberal constitutional democracy.He also highlights that any potential liability of the military sends a clear message that attempts to undermine the democratic process will have repercussions.
the possibility of Bolsonaro’s conviction is accelerating discussions within the right-wing regarding the 2026 elections.Leaders within the Centrão, a powerful bloc in the National Congress, are encouraging São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas to enter the race, a move publicly refuted by bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro. Governor de Freitas, while maintaining a candidate’s rhetoric, has recently begun addressing national issues and appearing alongside Centrão leaders.
Other potential right-wing candidates, including Governors Ronaldo caiado of Goiás and romeu Zema of Minas Gerais, have announced their pre-candidacies, while Ratinho Júnior of Paraná is also considered a potential contender. Centrão members believe that following the STF’s decision, Bolsonaro will face pressure to endorse a candidate to prevent fragmentation within the right-wing political spectrum.
Should Bolsonaro be convicted, he would face not only an extended period of ineligibility but also imprisonment, effectively preventing him from campaigning.This scenario further fuels the search for a successor to lead the right-wing opposition in the upcoming elections.
