Southwest Minnesota Weather Forecast: October 21, 2026
National Weather Service forecasts from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, issued late Wednesday, October 21, 2026, detail zone forecasts for southwestern Minnesota. What began as mild, clear autumn conditions across Cottonwood, Lyon, Nobles, Rock, Pipestone, Lincoln, Murray, and Jackson counties is giving way to high winds, plunging temperatures, and a multi-day soaking rain.
Rapid Warming Gives Way to Gale-Force South Winds
The week’s trajectory shifts dramatically on Thursday, October 22, 2026, as sunny skies push afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s across much of the region. Cities like Marshall, Worthington, and Luverne will experience calm conditions before southerly winds accelerate sharply heading into Friday, October 23, 2026.
Sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected on Friday, with afternoon gusts reaching up to 40 mph in Pipestone and Lincoln counties. Overnight lows will hold unusually warm in the upper 50s and low 60s under mostly cloudy skies, driven by the persistent, strong southern draft.
Rain Arrives as Temperatures Plummet This Weekend
The warm air collapses over the weekend as moisture moves into the tri-state region. Saturday, October 24, 2026, brings a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms, with daytime highs remaining in the mid-70s.
By Sunday, October 25, 2026, conditions deteriorate significantly. Rain becomes likely—carrying a 60 to 70 percent probability—while daytime highs plummet nearly 25 degrees into the lower 50s. Nighttime temperatures across the entire eight-county forecast zone will drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
| Location (Minnesota Zone) | Thursday High | Friday Wind Gusts | Sunday High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cottonwood (MNZ081) | Upper 70s | Up to 35 mph | Mid 50s |
| Lyon (MNZ072) | Upper 70s | Up to 35 mph | Lower 50s |
| Nobles (MNZ089) | Mid 70s | Up to 35 mph | Mid 50s |
| Rock (MNZ098) | Mid 70s | Up to 40 mph | Mid 50s |
| Pipestone (MNZ097) | Mid 70s | Up to 40 mph | Lower 50s |
| Lincoln (MNZ071) | Mid 70s | Up to 40 mph | Lower 50s |
| Murray (MNZ080) | Mid 70s | Up to 35 mph | Lower 50s |
Showers Continue Before Temperatures Rise Wednesday
Precipitation chances remain high through Monday, October 26, 2026, with morning showers likely before skies turn partly sunny in the afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach 50 degrees.
Nighttime lows early next week will settle firmly near freezing, with Monday night dipping into the upper 30s. Tuesday, October 27, 2026, offers a brief respite with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 50s before Wednesday brings a return to mid-to-upper 50s across the region.