Amidst ongoing conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be eyeing the Sumy region of Ukraine, possibly seeking its annexation.This development emerged from a May 20 meeting with officials from the Kursk region, an interaction analysts at the Institute for the Study of war (ISW) characterized as “undoubtedly orchestrated.”

the strategic importance of Sumy lies in its proximity to the border. A buffer zone encompassing the city would significantly hinder Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian territory with tube artillery or tactical drones.

The Kursk Connection: A Request for Expansion

During the May 20 meeting, Pavel Zolotarev, head of Glushkovsky Raion, directly requested the creation of a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory. According to the ISW report, Zolotarev’s request was met with a pointed question from Putin: How deep should this buffer be?

At least Sumy (City)
Pavel Zolotarev, head of Glushkovsky Raion

Zolotarev’s response implied a desire for Russia’s territorial expansion. This sentiment was echoed by acting Kursk regional governor Alexander khinshtein, who invoked familial ties to the Sumy region.

This land is not foreign to [us].
Alexander Khinshtein, acting Kursk regional governor

khinshtein expressed his support for the idea on Telegram, further fueling speculation about Russia’s intentions.

Negotiating Tactics and Strategic Framing

The ISW highlighted a potential link between the may 20 meeting and earlier negotiations. Russia’s negotiating team reportedly threatened to seize Sumy Oblast during May 16 talks with Ukraine in Istanbul.

The ISW suggests the Kremlin orchestrated the May 20 meeting to portray Putin as a decisive wartime leader,effectively masking military setbacks. The ISW wrote that this may be part of a broader plan to claim more Ukrainian land through future negotiations.

The Kremlin likely arranged the interaction at the May 20 meeting in order to frame Putin as an effective and engaged wartime leader.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Ground Realities: Capabilities and Challenges

Despite the rhetoric, military analysts question Russia’s capacity to seize Sumy in the near future. Ukrainian analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets identified the Russian 18th and 72nd Motorized Rifle Divisions, along with the 83rd Separate Airborne Brigade, as operating in the Sumy direction. He also noted the deployment of up to five mobilized rifle regiments.

the ISW assessed that these forces are insufficient for an assault on Sumy, a city with a pre-war population of 256,000. Russia’s track record in capturing Ukrainian cities further supports this assessment. Since 2022, Russia has failed to capture any Ukrainian city of comparable size, and even the seizure of Lysychansk – a smaller city – required months of grinding combat.

Russian forces have since struggled to seize much smaller settlements… despite using larger numbers of forces.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Ukrainian officials have consistently expressed skepticism about Russia’s ability to launch a accomplished offensive against Sumy, emphasizing the likely high costs and slow progress of any such attempt.

Ukraine’s Perspective: A New Offensive?

In early April, Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that Russia had effectively begun a new offensive targeting the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. He said that Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone along Ukraine’s northern border, including in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.