Growing Concerns Over Potential Russian Attacks on NATO,Including the Netherlands
Recent polling data reveals a critically important increase in Dutch citizens’ apprehension regarding potential Russian aggression,including attacks on NATO countries. A majority (55%) now believe Russia will attack a NATO member within the next five years,a jump from 40% just six months ago.Concerns about attacks on the Netherlands specifically have also risen.
The survey, conducted September 11-12 among over 20,000 members of the RTL Nieuwspanel and weighted to be representative of the Dutch population based on age, gender, education, efficacy, and political preference, highlights specific anxieties. A ample 72% of respondents are worried about Russian cyberattacks and hacking attempts – up from 63% last year. Fear of a physical attack,such as a ground or air raid,has also increased,from 10% in october of last year to 15% currently.
Tim Sweijs, research director at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, acknowledges the validity of these fears. He points to the escalating intensity of the ongoing war in Ukraine, noting the increasing frequency of Russian rocket and drone strikes. Sweijs also emphasizes Russia’s expanding “hybrid campaign” extending beyond disinformation – previously concentrated on platforms like X – to include physical attacks. These now encompass reported incidents like damage to undersea cables, disruptions to mobile networks and air traffic, and alleged arson at factory sites. The recent appearance of drones in NATO airspace, reportedly originating from two different directions, is especially concerning, leading Sweijs to suggest intentionality rather than accidental occurrences.
While a direct invasion, such as Russian tanks reaching Dam Square, is considered unlikely due to geographical factors, Sweijs warns of a strategy of escalating “pin pricks” – targeted attacks on high-impact locations like passenger airplanes or military bases – that coudl force a NATO response.
The port of Rotterdam is identified as a potential target due to its critical role as a supply route.However, Sweijs stresses that NATO’s nuclear deterrence acts as a significant disincentive for Russia to initiate a full-scale war, predicting Russia will likely continue its hybrid campaign to challenge NATO and create confusion and fear.
Despite these concerns, confidence in NATO’s military strength is growing, wiht 62% of Dutch respondents expressing increased belief in the alliance’s capabilities, up from 58% in January. 71% of those surveyed continue to view Russia as an enemy of the Netherlands.
Methodology: The research was conducted on September 11 and 12 among more than 20,000 members of the RTL Nieuwspanel. The results are representative of the Dutch population based on age, gender, education, efficacy, and political preference (voting behavior in the 2023 parliamentary elections). The RTL Nieuwspanel comprises over 60,000 members. Individuals interested in participating in future RTL Nieuwspanel investigations can sign up here.
