Russia to Abide by Nuclear Limits if US Does Too, Lavrov Says

Russia has indicated its willingness to adhere to limits on its nuclear arsenal, even after the expiration of the Modern START treaty with the United States, but only if Washington reciprocates. The statement from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, delivered before the Russian parliament, stipulated that the self-imposed “moratorium” would remain in effect “as long as the United States does not exceed the established limits.”

The New START treaty, signed in 2010, capped both the U.S. And Russia at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. The agreement expired on February 5th. While both countries have signaled an openness to a new nuclear arms control agreement, significant obstacles remain.

The United States has insisted that any future negotiations must include China, citing the country’s rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities. This position introduces a new complexity to arms control talks, as China has consistently maintained its policy of not limiting its nuclear arsenal in multilateral negotiations. According to the Federation of American Scientists, China currently possesses a significantly smaller, but growing, nuclear stockpile compared to the U.S. And Russia.

The expiration of New START marks the first time in decades that the world’s two largest nuclear powers are not operating under a formal treaty limiting their strategic nuclear weapons. The Arms Control Association notes that the absence of such a treaty increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation.

The situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In 2014, Ukraine relinquished its nuclear weapons, a move that was underpinned by security assurances from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Russia’s subsequent actions in Ukraine have raised questions about the credibility of those assurances, as reported by NPR.

The Council on Foreign Relations has mapped the deployment of U.S. And Russian nuclear weapons in Europe, highlighting the geographical proximity of these arsenals and the potential for rapid escalation in a crisis. The presence of U.S. Nuclear weapons in Europe is a key element of NATO’s deterrence strategy.

As of today, the U.S. State Department has not publicly responded to Lavrov’s conditional offer. No new talks between the two nations have been scheduled, and the future of nuclear arms control remains uncertain.