Republicans won mid-decade redistricting wars, New Yorker and Politico report

The Origins of the Mid-Decade Seat Grab

While redistricting typically follows the decennial census to account for population shifts, Trump initiated an unusual mid-decade crusade by encouraging Republicans in Texas to draw new boundaries. The goal was to make five Democratic districts friendlier to the G.O.P. As Trump stated regarding the effort, “We are entitled to five more seats.” North Carolina carved out one pickup opportunity for Republicans, while Missouri pursued similar changes pending a referendum campaign. In direct response to Texas, Californians voted to suspend a nonpartisan commission to make five Republican districts friendlier for Democrats.

Redistricting efforts in other red states faced immediate roadblocks. Indiana’s push stalled despite intense pressure from the White House, as a bloc of state Senate Republicans voted it down while facing bomb threats and swatting attacks. Virginians subsequently voted in a referendum to bring up to four seats into the Democratic column, and a court battle in Utah secured a solidly blue seat there. By late April, NPR reported that Democrats appeared to have an edge in the national tug-of-war.

The Supreme Court Decision That Shifted the Map

The most consequential shift occurred outside state legislatures when the U.S. Supreme Court reached a decision in Louisiana v. Callais at the end of April. By a six-to-three vote, the Court gutted provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act that previously barred states from drawing district lines that denied voters of color an equal chance to select preferred candidates. The ruling raised the standard of intentionality, making previously illegal racial gerrymanders permissible as long as they can be justified as partisan.

Following the ruling, Republicans quickly created three additional favorable seats in Louisiana, Alabama, and Tennessee. The changes sparked fierce local pushback. In Tennessee, lawmaker Justin Jones burned an image of a Confederate flag at the state capitol in protest, comparing local Republicans to Bull Connor and George Wallace. Veteran Democratic Congressman Steve Cohen announced he would not run in his newly redrawn district around Memphis, citing its vastly increased physical size and difficulties campaigning due to a disability caused by childhood polio.

Republicans Win Redistricting Wars as Maps Trigger Voter Anger

Not every state that could draw new lines post-Callais rushed to do so. Lawmakers in Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina blocked similar efforts. However, the states that did redraw maps triggered intense anger among Black voters. In Alabama, targeted Democratic Congressman Shomari Figures remains competitive in his new seat, while Don Davis faces a competitive race in North Carolina. The House Democrats’ campaign arm has increased resources directed toward the newly gerrymandered Tennessee seat.

By May 8th, Politico declared the redistricting wars over and Republicans the victors. Two days later, Trump advisor James Blair celebrated the outcome on X, predicting double-digit gains for Republicans. Meanwhile, the political fallout continued in states like Indiana, where most legislators who voted against redistricting and ran for reëlection lost to Trump-backed challengers.

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