Reform UK Gains Momentum in Wales,Threatening Labor Stronghold & Raising Questions for Keir Starmer
caerphilly,Wales – A recent surge in support for Reform UK is sending shockwaves through Welsh politics,possibly setting the stage for a significant upset in May’s elections for the Senedd (Welsh Parliament),councils across England,and other key contests. The party is currently leading in a crucial by-election in Caerphilly, a traditionally Labour-held constituency, raising concerns for Labour leader Keir Starmer.
A Survation poll places Reform UK at 42% support in Caerphilly, surpassing Plaid Cymru at 38% and Labour at a diminished 12%. Candidate Llŷr Powell, 30, expressed ambitious goals for the party, stating, “Our goal is to take control of the Welsh Government – not just win the largest number of seats.And we want to use those levers of power to make the lives of the people of Wales better.”
Powell highlighted a shift in voter sentiment, noting that support is no longer simply a protest vote against Labour, but a genuine embrace of Reform UK’s platform. “I think Reform is now the major party in Wales,” he asserted.
The potential for a Reform UK breakthrough is causing alarm within Welsh Labour. A senior party figure described the situation as a “****storm,” acknowledging the challenges of appearing as a radical force after 15 years in power at Westminster and 26 years governing the Welsh Senedd. The source criticized the Welsh Parliament’s focus on ”constitutional reform,” arguing that core services like “education, health, and transport” were neglected in favor of a “power-grab.”
Powell is actively appealing to voters who have become disillusioned with Labour, emphasizing the importance of actually casting a ballot. “It’s actually getting out there and voting on the day that matters,” he urged. He envisions Wales becoming the first “common sense” nation under a Reform UK government, prioritizing winning the next Senedd elections above all else.
reform UK already holds one seat in the Senedd,with Laura anne Jones having previously defected from the Conservative Party. A victory in Caerphilly would be a landmark achievement,signaling the party’s ability to challenge Labour’s century-long dominance in Wales.
While Powell declined to speculate about becoming First Minister, he stressed the importance of building a strong team, stating, “One person can’t fix Wales; it’s going to be a cabinet that we have to collect together.” He also noted the positive reception to party figurehead Nigel Farage on the campaign trail,praising his authenticity: “Even if they don’t agree with something he’s saying,they believe that he believes it… That’s what other politicians don’t have.”
This by-election is being viewed by Reform UK as a key test of its improved campaigning capabilities, and a potential springboard for wider electoral success in May. The results will undoubtedly be closely watched by both Labour and the wider political landscape.
