Party leaders contesting New Zealand’s upcoming election are struggling to build public support
Party leaders contesting New Zealand’s upcoming election are struggling to build public support, with new polling data showing not a single contender reaches a five out of ten rating on favourability. The next prime minister will almost certainly be National’s Christopher Luxon or Labour’s Chris Hipkins, yet both men stalled at just 20 percent in the preferred prime minister stakes during a recent 1News Verian poll.
Chris Hipkins Leads Political Leader Favourability Rankings
Vote Compass results gathered between October 4 and 11, 2026, asked 136,713 participants to rate their favourability toward nine political leaders on a scale from zero to ten. Labour leader Chris Hipkins topped the group with an average score of 4.3, sitting well behind the peak ratings achieved by his predecessor Jacinda Ardern. National leader Christopher Luxon placed fifth with an average rating of 3.6, landing behind former National leader Judith Collins, who scored 3.7 prior to her party’s 2020 election defeat.
Following Hipkins in the overall favourability rankings, Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick registered 4.0, while Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong secured 3.8. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters recorded 3.7, ACT leader David Seymour reached 3.4, and Green co-leader Marama Davidson stood at 3.3. Te Pāti Māori co-leaders recorded the lowest overall figures, with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer at 2.1 and Rawiri Waititi at 1.9.
Hipkins Leads Undecided Voters Amid Demographic Divides
Among participants who remain undecided on their party vote, Hipkins retains the lead with 4.3. Wong moves into second place at 4.0, ahead of Swarbrick on 3.8, Peters on 3.3, and Luxon on 3.0. However, about a third of undecided participants answered “don’t know” when asked to assess Wong, meaning her average reflects solely those who provided a numerical score. Wong also carries the highest “don’t know” share across all participants at roughly 16 percent.
Voter demographics reveal stark generational and gender divides. Swarbrick leads among participants aged 18 to 29 with an average of 5.2, followed by Hipkins at 4.8 and Wong at 4.5, while Luxon records 2.9 in this bracket. For participants aged 65 and older, Peters leads at 4.6, followed by Luxon at 4.4 and Seymour at 4.3. Gender assessments of the two major-party leaders also diverge: women rate Hipkins at 4.6 and Luxon at 3.2, whereas men evaluate them much more closely, giving Hipkins 3.9 and Luxon 4.0.
Comparing Scores Across Electoral Cycles
Both major-party leaders register lower numerical scores than in the 2023 comparison data, while Peters records an increase. Survey question phrasing changed between cycles, shifting from a measure of “likeability” in previous elections to “favourability” in 2026, though both questions utilized a zero-to-ten scale. In 2023, Hipkins received a likeability score of 4.9, compared with his 4.3 favourability score this year. Luxon dropped from 3.8 to 3.6, while Peters rose from 2.9 to 3.7.
| Leader | Previous Score | 2026 Score |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Hipkins | 4.9 (2023) | 4.3 |
| Christopher Luxon | 3.8 (2023) | 3.6 |
| Winston Peters | 2.9 (2023) | 3.7 |
| David Seymour | 3.6 (2023) | 3.4 |
| Marama Davidson | 3.2 (2023) | 3.3 |
| Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | 2.7 (2023) | 2.1 |
| Rawiri Waititi | 2.5 (2023) | 1.9 |
Stronger assessments are concentrated within committed party bases. Labour supporters rate Hipkins at 7.3, and National voters give Luxon 6.9. Green supporters rate Swarbrick at 8.5 and Davidson at 7.1, while ACT supporters score Seymour at 7.9. Peters receives 7.8 from New Zealand First supporters, and Wong scores 7.4 among those intending to vote for Opportunity.