Global Climate Goals Increasingly Out of Reach as Fossil Fuel Expansion Continues
WASHINGTON – Current plans for oil, coal, adn gas production worldwide threaten to derail the goals of the Paris Agreement, a new report finds. Despite international commitments to limit global warming, nations are collectively on track to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,according to the report released today by Climate Analytics.
The analysis, based on data collected during the biden administration, examines government plans for fossil fuel extraction and use. It reveals a significant gap between stated climate ambitions and projected fossil fuel output.
“We’ve been talking about the need to reduce emissions for decades, and now it’s time to deliver,” says report co-author sonja Fajardo.
The report does not yet fully account for recent policy shifts under the Trump administration, which are aimed at boosting U.S. fossil fuel production and curtailing investments in renewable energy sources like wind and solar. However,analysts note that the full impact of these changes will take time to materialize,as state and local policies supporting the Paris Agreement goals and existing corporate investments remain in place.
“The level of impact that the Trump administration is able to have on global climate is still an open question,” says Neil Grant, an analyst at Climate Analytics and co-author of the report.
The Trump administration has already initiated the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, a move previously made during his first term. Key policy changes proposed include repealing climate pollution limits on fossil fuel power plants, reversing a 2009 finding that climate pollution harms public health, and eliminating climate pollution limits on vehicles.
Lee zeldin, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, announced rollbacks in march, stating, “We are driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion to drive down cost of living for American families, unleash American energy, bring auto jobs back to the U.S. and more.”
Grant believes the success of Trump’s efforts to undermine climate action hinges on weather other nations follow suit. “We saw in 2016 to 2020 that Trump tried to kill climate action and tried to kill the Paris Agreement,” Grant says. “He hasn’t succeeded. I’m confident that he won’t succeed again.”
Despite the concerning trajectory, most countries are currently maintaining their commitments to the Paris Agreement. The report’s authors emphasize that achieving the 1.5-degree Celsius goal will now require a significantly steeper and more rapid decline in fossil fuel production and consumption.
