North Carolina map redraws shifted 13th District to Republican win
North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District shifted from a 9,000-vote Democratic win in 2022 to a 70,000-vote Republican victory in 2024 after state lawmakers redrew the map to carve out Democratic voters in Raleigh and add rural counties reaching to the Virginia border.
Redrawing the Map in North Carolina
In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel won the district by about 9,000 votes running as a moderate. Two years later, Republican Brad Knott won the seat by more than 70,000 votes. Voters did not change their minds. Politicians changed their voters.
The Republican-controlled legislature split the rectangular 13th District into an hourglass shape. Lawmakers removed Democratic strongholds in Raleigh and replaced them with a swath of rural counties reaching toward Virginia. Swing districts nationwide fell from 45 to 37 over the past year following a partisan redistricting battle sparked by President Donald Trump.
National Decline of Competitive Seats
Competitive House seats have steadily eroded since World War II as voters became more polarized, less likely to split tickets, and more inclined to live near like-minded neighbors. In 1964, 96 House seats fit the modern definition of a swing seat, according to a count from the 1970s.
The shrinking number of competitive districts means the vast majority of House seats are decided in primaries by small fractions of voters at the ideological extremes. Unite America calculated that 87% of representatives elected to the House in 2024 were chosen by 7% of the country’s voters.
The least competitive election of our lifetimes will lead to the least accountable and least representative Congress of our lifetimes.
Nick Troiano, Unite America
The biggest divide I found in Congress wasn’t Democrat versus Republican, it was safe seats versus competitive seats,
Nickel said.
Limited Competitive Seats Restrict Potential Democratic Gains
Republicans hope the limited number of competitive seats restricts Democratic gains on Nov. 3. Both sides are fighting over a narrow House battlefield,
said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign. It’s a knife fight in a dark alley.
Democrats expanded their targets amid an unpopular war with Iran and voter anger over high prices. Yet Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro noted that a wave similar to 2006 would shift far fewer seats now because of the lack of competitive districts. Even if there’s the kind of swing we got in 2006, there’s not going to be 40 seats changing hands. There’s going to be 20 seats changing hands,
Shapiro said.
Academics debate how much of the decline stems from partisan gerrymandering versus self-segregation by voters. Multiple studies found that without partisan gerrymandering, the House would have about double its current number of competitive seats.
Nickel Seeks District Attorney Post After Trump Wins
Nickel decided against seeking reelection after finding that no Democratic incumbent had retained a seat where Trump took 55% or more of the vote. Trump received 58% of the vote in the new 13th District. Nickel instead ran for district attorney of Wake County, winning the Democratic primary with no Republican challenger.
Political scientist Michael Bitzer of Catawba College noted that only 15% of North Carolina voting precincts are politically competitive, creating vastly different regional cultures within a short drive. In Roxboro, Walmart worker Linda Long said she backs Republicans simply out of habit. In Franklinton, retired architectural engineer George Scott described a dislike for Trump but maintained his lifelong Republican voting pattern.
Paul Barringer, the Democratic nominee challenging Knott, campaigns in a district where national Democrats see a long-shot opportunity for an upset. Mary Blank, who leads a local chapter of the liberal group Indivisible, acknowledged the uphill climb. Linwood Parker, the 78-year-old mayor of Four Oaks and a lifelong Republican, defended the redistricting process as a traditional political lever. Otherwise it’s like saying, when we play this baseball game, we’re going to have three outs, we’ll give you two,
Parker said.
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