Moderna’s mRNA Cancer Vaccine: Breakthrough Trial Results and Market Impact
Moderna Inc. and Merck & Co. announced that their personalized messenger RNA cancer vaccine, combined with the immunotherapy drug Keytruda, achieved a 44% reduction in the rate of cancer recurrence and death compared to Keytruda alone in a midstage study of 157 melanoma patients.
The fiscal stakes for the biotechnology sector shifted when Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna reported these outcomes. Wall Street responded swiftly, sending Moderna’s stock price up 21% by midday Tuesday following the initial announcement.
Decoding the Phase 2 Melanoma Data and Financial Projections
The study evaluated patients who underwent surgery to remove their cancer for serious cases of melanoma before receiving either Keytruda independently or the combination therapy. Moderna designed each experimental vaccine to the unique DNA of each person’s tumor through a largely automated laboratory process. By delivering mRNA directly into immune cells to guide them in synthesizing targeted proteins that combat an individual’s specific malignancy, this personalized-medicine approach reshapes traditional cancer treatment.
Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, described the breakthrough to Business Insider as a “COVID-like moment,” stating that the therapeutic market could be “as big as Keytruda or bigger,” referencing Merck’s therapy that brought in $15.5 billion in sales through the first nine months of 2022.
Clinical Scrutiny and the Path to Regulatory Filings
Despite bullish market enthusiasm, institutional analysts maintain a pragmatic stance regarding commercial timelines. Daina Graybosch, an SVB Securities analyst who covers Merck, noted that while the results exceeded her expectations, results have yet to be presented at a conference or published in a journal. Sector investor Brad Loncar offered a similar warning, noting that immunotherapies often find melanoma to be an easy target, meaning success here does not automatically assure effectiveness in treating other forms of cancer.
Merck paid $250 million earlier this year to jointly develop the vaccine, extending a partnership between the two drugmakers that began in 2016. With plans underway for pivotal 2023 trials evaluating the therapeutic in melanoma alongside various other oncological indications, the two partners face growing logistical challenges.