McKinsey research shows US economy will have more jobs by 2035
As the U.S. economy prepares for widespread technological shifts over the next decade, new research shows that the economy will have more jobs by 2035 than today, though the transition will force millions of workers to retrain or earn new credentials.
The Scale of the Labor Shift
While public debates focus heavily on automation destroying employment, the broader economy will actually feature more jobs by 2035 than it does today, according to the research. However, the mix of occupations will shift dramatically, requiring roughly 11 million Americans to leave shrinking occupations for entirely different ones. While many workers will find roles within familiar occupational groups, an average of 770,000 workers annually will need to cross occupational lines over the next decade. This crossover rate stands at 3.6 times the historical rate. While the COVID-19 pandemic produced a comparable surge in workforce disruption, that shock lasted only a year or two, whereas the current transformation will persist for at least a decade.
Office Support and the Path to Project Management
Office and administrative support faces the largest projected job losses by 2035, with automation capable of taking on 80 percent of the hours worked in that category. The research reported that an administrative assistant possesses a viable, higher-paying pathway into project management. These workers already perform tasks that occupy about 58 percent of what a project manager does, including planning, scheduling, coordinating operations, documenting decisions, and managing stakeholders.
The remaining gap requires mastering project-scheduling methods, process improvement, forecasting, quality management, and business development. Yet the primary barrier is often not capability, but the requirement for a bachelor’s degree and professional certification. Administrative assistants must weigh whether they are willing to invest thousands of dollars and several years in schooling to capture a substantial wage gain.
Credentials and the Cost of Transition
Other occupational transitions present distinct structural hurdles. A dishwasher moving into a growing home health aide role shares only about 20 percent of the required skills, needing patient assistance instruction and vital-sign assessment. Furthermore, 92 percent of healthcare support jobs sit within the bottom two wage quintiles, offering little room to improve their lifestyle. Conversely, a packager moving into production fabrication retains about 52 percent of their skills, such as lifting and quality control, and faces no credential requirement. Even so, fabrication requires mechanical assembly, drilling, and fine motor skills.
Across the broader economy, credentials are required in 85 percent of growing jobs. Approximately 38 percent of these requirements are mandated by law in areas where safety and public trust are at stake, but another 47 percent reflect employer preferences for degrees, certificates, or job titles rather than strict legal rules. Short training programs often remain unaffordable for workers who cannot sustain months of forgone wages without external support.
Demand for AI Fluency and Adaptability
Employers are actively signaling changing priorities in their job postings. Since 2022, listings demanding AI fluency have risen elevenfold, while those seeking adaptability have risen fivefold. Job postings requiring resilience, curiosity, and a willingness to learn have risen threefold. More than 70 percent of workers will need to acquire new skills even if they remain with their current employers.
Ultimately, individual workers cannot independently shorten licensing timelines or self-fund extended periods without pay. Whether millions of employees successfully manage these transitions depends heavily on employers and institutions altering hiring conventions, dropping degree screens no law requires, and building practical assessments and apprenticeships.