Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs acknowledged that his government cannot independently impose
Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs acknowledged that his government cannot independently impose a complete ban or a 300% tariff increase on Russian grain transit without exposing the state to hundreds of millions of euros in legal claims.
Legal Claims Threaten State Budget While Transit Volumes Surge
Government ministers learned during a Tuesday meeting that blocking Russian grain shipments could trigger immediate legal liabilities ranging between 200 million and 800 million euros. Kulbergs pointed to ongoing litigation in Lithuania involving similar transit disputes, citing claims that reached 12 billion euros alongside expected payouts of 450 million euros later this year. These financial risks complicate efforts to curtail the trade as regional shipping patterns shift.
Research from IFCHOR Galbraiths shows that Russian grain loadings across Baltic and continental ports surged to 1.16 million tonnes in September, a dramatic increase from 216,000 tonnes in August. The shift follows severe security deteriorations in the Black Sea that have driven exporters to northern transport corridors. Approximately 253,623 tonnes of Russian grain crossed through Latvia between September 1 and September 24 alone, nearly doubling the total volume handled during the entirety of September 2025.
Baltic Leaders Demand a Bloc-Wide EU Ban
In response to mounting security and economic pressures, the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania submitted a joint letter to European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling for an EU-wide transit prohibition. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas emphasized that European transport networks should not assist Moscow in financing its military operations or mitigating the economic impact of its aggression.
The proposed European restrictions target transit operations where grain moves through infrastructure within member states without entering the bloc’s domestic market. Kulbergs stressed that the Baltic states must act in unison and Europe must agree on a joint solution to stop this transit and prevent it from moving from one country to another.
Diverging National Approaches Across the Baltic Region
Estonia enacted national prohibitions on October 8, banning the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its ports. However, Kulbergs explained that Estonia’s domestic framework differs substantially from Latvia’s situation. Estonia held no active grain transit contracts when it implemented its ban, whereas Latvia currently maintains binding agreements covering 300,000 tonnes of grain shipments.
Latvian authorities have explored alternative regulatory mechanisms to make the trade economically unviable. LatRailNet implemented a 25% average increase in infrastructure fees on October 14, falling short of the 300% tariff hikes mentioned by political leaders.
Kulbergs intends to travel to Brussels to present the legal and financial findings to European Commission leadership, advocating for a coordinated bloc-wide solution that shields individual Baltic economies from catastrophic compensation payouts.