JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Will Outperform Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade
JPMorgan Asset Management projected on October 19, 2026, that Bitcoin will outpace both large-cap American equities and gold over the coming decade, forecasting an annualized return of 10% in its latest long-term outlook report.
The forecast forms part of the 31st annual edition of the Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions published by JPMorgan Asset Management. The report models expected returns across more than 200 asset classes over a 10-to-15-year horizon to guide strategic portfolio planning. Against the bank’s projected 10% annualized return for Bitcoin, U.S. large-cap equities are pegged at 7.5%, U.S. REITs at 8.2%, and gold at 5.5%. U.S. small-cap equities carry a projected return of 7.7% in the comparative figures.
JPMorgan Excludes Bitcoin from Core Portfolio Diversification
Despite the high growth projection, JPMorgan explicitly excluded Bitcoin from its core portfolio diversification matrices due to unstable market correlations. The bank classifies the digital asset as speculative and views it primarily as a hedge against monetary easing rather than a stabilizing component for standard asset allocations. The return forecast is paired with a projected annualized volatility of 55%. That figure sits roughly three times higher than the 18% volatility estimated for U.S. large-cap equities and the 17.2% expected for gold.
The report calculates a wider arithmetic annual average return of 20.9% for Bitcoin alongside the 10% compound annual rate. Compound returns account for the compounding effects of gains and losses across periods, offering a clearer picture of how capital accumulates over extended horizons. Under the bank’s bullish scenario, annualized returns for Bitcoin could reach 16.6%, while a bearish scenario models an annualized loss of 11.2%. These calculations factor in supply growth relative to the broader money supply, network adoption rates, and potential positioning alongside gold.
Bitwise Notes Institutional Shift Toward Digital Assets
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, highlighted the inclusion of the asset in the major bank’s long-term study. In remarks posted to social media, Hougan observed that traditional institutions move from dismissing digital assets to incorporating them into long-term models as top performers. Bitwise previously published its own long-term outlook in August 2025, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a 28.3% annualized return in its base case.
The updated projections from JPMorgan arrive as traditional financial institutions steadily expand their digital asset infrastructure. Alongside these long-term asset models, the banking firm has advanced institutional blockchain initiatives, including the movement of JPM Coin onto Ethereum for corporate clients. Financial institutions managing digital asset holdings continue to balance the modeled return potential against the operational risks of high portfolio volatility.