The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike on Saturday has triggered a succession process within the Islamic Republic, leaving the country facing an uncertain future. A three-member transitional council has been formed, comprised of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council, to oversee state duties during the interim period.
The ultimate authority for selecting a novel Supreme Leader rests with the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a body of clerics elected every eight years. However, candidates for the Assembly of Experts are vetted by the Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog known for disqualifying candidates, including former President Hassan Rouhani in the March 2024 election. According to the Iranian constitution, the Assembly of Experts “must, as soon as possible,” choose a new supreme leader.
The current transitional council’s formation is in accordance with Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, which outlines the procedure for governing until a new Supreme Leader is appointed. This marks only the second time in the Islamic Republic’s history that a transfer of power in the office of the Supreme Leader has occurred. The first was in 1989, following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The selection process is complicated by the recent death of Ebrahim Raisi, who was widely considered a potential successor to Khamenei. Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May 2024. This has shifted attention to Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, a 56-year-old cleric, as a possible contender. However, a father-to-son succession could provoke significant opposition, both from within Iran and internationally, potentially being viewed as a move towards establishing a religious dynasty.
The Supreme Leader holds paramount authority within Iran’s political system, serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC, designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2019, wields considerable economic and political influence within Iran and has been a key player in the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of regional allies and militant groups. The future direction of the IRGC and its regional activities will be significantly impacted by the selection of the next Supreme Leader.
The United States and Israel launched joint strikes that resulted in Khamenei’s death, and U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to continue the bombing campaign targeting the regime. This ongoing military pressure adds another layer of complexity to the succession process, potentially hindering the Assembly of Experts’ ability to convene and deliberate effectively.
