Ipsos poll: 7 in 10 Albertans intend to vote to remain in Canada

Less than one-quarter of Albertans support proceeding to a binding vote on provincial separation, according to exclusive polling data released by Global News ahead of the October 19 referendum.

The Ipsos survey, which gathered responses from 801 residents, indicates that 23 per cent of voters back initiating the legal process for a separation vote. That figure represents a three-percentage-point increase from previous polling conducted in September.

Support for Separation Varies by Age and Gender

Support for the separation question is unevenly distributed across the province. The polling data shows that backing for Option 2—the path toward a binding separation vote—climbs to 27 per cent among men and among residents aged 35 to 54.

“We’re seeing only about a quarter of people in Alberta saying they give support for this, but there’s a fair amount of diversity in the opinions among the people that we interviewed depending on where they lived and what their demographic background is,” Darrell Bricker told Global News.

Despite the increase, seven in 10 Albertans state they intend to vote for the province to remain part of Canada, holding steady with September figures. Undecided voters account for five per cent of the electorate, while two per cent report they will not cast a ballot. Bricker noted that even if every undecided and non-voting resident ultimately supported separation, the totals would fall short of the threshold needed to drive an exit.

Motivations Behind the Ballot

The 10-question referendum features a split structure. While the final question addresses separation, the first nine deal with immigration and the constitution.

Polling conducted by the Angus Reid Institute indicates that for many voters selecting Option 2, the goal is messaging rather than actual independence. The institute found that 60 per cent of those supporting the separation path are motivated primarily by a desire to send a message to Ottawa, compared to 37 per cent focused strictly on leaving Confederation.

CityNews Calgary polling released in October showed that majorities in both Calgary and Edmonton back the non-binding immigration and voter identification measures. Requirements for proof of citizenship drew 67 per cent support in Calgary and 64 per cent in Edmonton, while proposals to expand provincial control over immigration drew 59 per cent backing in both cities.

Conversely, Angus Reid data highlights deep voter skepticism regarding the province’s political leadership. Three in five Albertans—61 per cent—state that Premier Danielle Smith has handled the separation issue and the referendum poorly.

Broadcast Coverage Plans

Global News has scheduled extensive coverage of the October 19 vote.

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