Newcastle coal futures for March 2026 surged 10.4% on Tuesday afternoon, March 3, to $139 per ton, reaching the highest level since December 2, 2024, and marking the largest daily increase in nearly three years. The price increase follows an 8.7% jump on Monday, March 2, according to market data.
The strengthening coal prices coincide with a rise in natural gas prices, as the fuel serves as a substitute for coal in power generation. European benchmark Dutch TTF has leaped more than 25%, briefly touching a nearly 50% increase on Monday, while the benchmark Asia S&P Global JKM LNG has climbed almost 39%.
The surge in natural gas prices was triggered by news that QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company of Qatar and the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities following an attack by Iranian drones. Ras Laffan accounts for one-fifth of global LNG supply, and this is the first disruption at the facility in its 30-year history.
Taiwan, heavily reliant on LNG supplies from Qatar, indicated it would increase its use of coal-fired power plants if the disruption from Qatar persists and impacts natural gas supplies. In 2023, approximately 24% of Taiwan’s energy mix came from natural gas.
The rising coal prices are providing a short-term positive catalyst for coal mining stocks. Shares of Adaro Andalan Indonesia ($AADI) closed up 6.8% on Tuesday, while Bukit Asam ($PTBA) and Indo Tambangraya Megah ($ITMG) rose 6.2% and 6.4% respectively. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East that are driving energy prices. Concerns also remain regarding potential domestic regulatory changes, including planned production quota cuts, export tariff increases, and increased Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) requirements.
Looking ahead, the sentiment surrounding coal prices remains negative. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected in December 2025 that global coal demand will decline at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -0.6% between 2025 and 2030, driven by the transition to renewable energy and increased substitution with LNG.
Elsewhere, Danantara & Indonesia Investment Authority (INA) have agreed to a $200 million investment in Chandra Asri Pacific’s subsidiary, PT Chandra Asri Alkali, following a memorandum of understanding signed in June 2025. PT Chandra Asri Alkali is building an $800 million chlor-alkali and ethylene dichloride (CA-EDC) plant, expected to begin operations in 2027. Chandra Asri Pacific has also announced force majeure due to feedstock supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, with the duration of the disruption currently uncertain.
Vale Indonesia ($INCO) is the only nickel company to have received approval for its 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB), according to Meidy Katrin Lengkey, Secretary General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association. Approval for Aneka Tambang’s RKAB is expected in March 2026, allowing production to begin in April 2026 with a potential revision in July 2026.
Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY) management, during its 2025 earnings call, targeted revenue growth of 10-15% year-over-year in 2026 (compared to 19% year-over-year in 2025), with a gross profit margin of 40-44% (compared to 45.3% in 2025) and capital expenditure of Rp800 billion (compared to Rp621 billion in 2025). The wide margin guidance reflects uncertainty surrounding rising raw material prices and distribution concerns for whole milk powder amid conflict in the Middle East. CMRY is targeting a 15% CAGR for revenue growth over the next five years.
Erajaya Swasembada recorded same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 39.2% year-over-year in January 2026 (compared to 36.4% year-over-year in December 2025), while Sinar Eka Selaras ($ERAL) reported SSSG of 25.5% year-over-year in January 2026 (compared to 22.3% year-over-year in December 2025). The strong performance is attributed to a low base effect in January 2025. The group added 31 stores in January 2026, with ERAA opening 24 and ERAL opening 2.
Royaltama Mulia Kontraktorindo plans a rights issue of up to 512 million modern shares, with a potential dilution of up to 29.06%, to raise working capital. The execution price and ratio have not been announced. The plan will be discussed at an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders on April 8, 2026.
Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) has completed the divestment of its SariWangi tea business to a non-affiliated party, as agreed on January 6, 2026. The transaction value was Rp1.5 trillion.
Astra International directors, FXL Kesuma and Gidion Hasan, purchased approximately 1.6 million and 700,000 shares of ASII respectively, at average prices of approximately Rp6,563 and Rp6,631 per share. FXL Kesuma’s ownership stake in ASII increased from 0.0054% to 0.0094%, while Gidion Hasan’s stake increased from 0.015% to 0.0167%.
AKR Corporindo director Suresh Vembu sold approximately 2.1 million shares of AKRA at an average price of Rp1,349 per share, totaling approximately Rp2.9 million, between February 26 and March 2, 2026. Suresh Vembu’s ownership stake in AKRA decreased from 0.025% to 0.014%.
Arwana Citramulia plans a share buyback of up to Rp100 billion between April 9, 2026, and April 9, 2027, subject to approval at an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders on April 8, 2026. The buyback will be conducted through PT RHB Sekuritas.
