Islamabad – A mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Iva Petrova, is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on February 26th to begin a review of the country’s economic performance under a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The nearly two-week assessment, concluding March 11th, will be critical in determining the release of approximately $1 billion in further funding.
The IMF team will evaluate Pakistan’s economic progress as of the finish of December 2025, focusing on adherence to quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. While Pakistan has largely met the quantitative targets, officials acknowledge shortfalls in indicative targets, potentially impacting future implementation plans, according to statements released by Pakistani officials.
A key area of discussion will be preliminary budget proposals for the fiscal year 2026-27, with particular attention paid to provincial finances. Revenue collection has fallen short of expectations, but authorities are optimistic that a recent ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court in favor of a super tax will partially offset this deficit. The IMF team will also scrutinize the power sector, which has seen recent policy shifts regarding industrial tariffs and residential fixed charges, though circular debt levels remain within agreed-upon limits.
According to a report by Topline Research, Pakistan is expected to meet almost all seven quantitative performance criteria, though net international reserves may fall slightly below target. The report indicated reserves were likely to be around $6.7 billion against a $7 billion benchmark for September 2025, and below $6 billion for December 2025 against a $6.5 billion benchmark. The State Bank’s foreign currency swaps also remained within acceptable limits.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) missed its indicative target by Rs336 billion, but Topline Research anticipates that the super tax verdict could mitigate some of this shortfall, even if the annual revenue goal remains unmet. The report also noted a technical slippage in targeted cash transfers, attributed to lower administrative expenses rather than reduced beneficiary numbers.
Successful completion of the review would unlock a disbursement of $760 million in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF by the end of April. The IMF’s assessment comes after initial talks began on Monday, focusing on fiscal performance, revenue shortfalls, and the impact of recent floods, as reported by independent sources.
The IMF team’s visit follows an end-of-mission statement issued in October 2025, after discussions on the second review under the EFF and the first review under the RSF. The current review will assess progress since that time and set the stage for future economic policy decisions.
