Trump’s Ceasefire Stalls, Iran’s Future Uncertain

Following Iran’s attack on a U.S. airbase, a ceasefire called by President Donald Trump has taken hold. However, the long-term implications of this military standstill remain unclear, with internal struggles and regional tensions threatening to destabilize the region further.

The Call for Change

President Trump has since backtracked from his initial statements, although other voices persist in calling for a change in regime. John Bolton, former national security advisor, has stated that a change is still necessary. Those sentiments are echoed by others, including Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed shah.

Doubt and Division

For many Iranians, regime change would betray their pursuit of democratic ideals. Leading Iran scholars and analysts express a bleak outlook. “Absolutely no one,” stated Hamid Dabashi, a professor of Iranian Studies at Columbia University, is prepared to step in.

Risks of Instability

The collapse of the current government could lead to a power vacuum. This could allow the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to take control or provoke violent power struggles. It is unlikely that democratic forces would fill the void. Additionally, a sudden collapse could trigger secessionist movements among different ethnic groups within Iran.

Neighboring countries may intervene, raising the prospect of regional war through proxy militias.

“IRGC at its core is a guerrilla operation,” Dabashi says. “One consequence of this Israeli invasion might in fact be a military coup in Iran by the IRGC rather than a democratic government.”

—Hamid Dabashi, Professor of Iranian Studies

Thomas Warrick, former senior advisor in the U.S. State Department, believes the IRGC is the most likely winner if the government collapses. He suggests they would likely install a religious leader to legitimize their rule. The level of repression would likely increase, a grim outcome supported by analysts (Pew Research Center 2024).

History’s Shadow

The 2009 Green Movement in Iran, stemming from election fraud allegations, was suppressed by security forces. Recent protests have faced crackdowns, including executions. Internal divisions within Iran, along with external influences, present substantial hurdles to change. Massoumeh Torfeh, an Iran specialist at the London School of Economics, says regime change is a misguided idea given the current instability.