Polls have opened in Gorton and Denton, south-east Manchester, as voters decide a by-election that has become a key test for both Labour and the surging Reform UK party. The contest, triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne in January amid an investigation into offensive WhatsApp messages, is shaping up to be a three-way battle with the Green party also vying for victory.
Green party leader Zack Polanski claimed his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority and suggested Labour would face a reckoning if Nigel Farage’s party were to succeed. “I don’t think Labour are in this race at all – they’ve known that for a long time,” Polanski said ahead of the 7am poll opening on Thursday. He indicated internal Green party data showed them marginally behind Reform, with Labour trailing significantly.
Labour has focused its campaign on warning voters that a vote for the Greens could inadvertently benefit Reform UK, echoing a strategy that backfired during the Caerphilly by-election in October, where the party lost to Plaid Cymru despite repeatedly urging voters to back only Labour to defeat Reform. Keir Starmer’s party is attempting to consolidate left-leaning voters with the argument that only Labour can effectively counter the rise of Farage’s party.
Polanski accused Labour of deliberately attempting to split the left-wing vote, arguing that a Green victory would pose an “existential” threat to Starmer’s leadership. He expressed concern that a close result could notice Reform win by a narrow margin due to Labour’s efforts to undermine the Green’s campaign. A similar vote split contributed to Reform’s victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last May, secured by just six votes.
Labour is defending a substantial majority in a constituency where nearly 80% of voters supported left-leaning parties in the 2024 general election. Angeliki Stogia, a local councillor, is the Labour candidate, having been selected after Andy Burnham was reportedly prevented from standing. Reform UK is fielding Matt Goodwin, a former academic and current presenter on GB News, who has faced scrutiny over past comments regarding women, Muslims, and British citizenship. Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber, represents the Green party.
The outcome is considered highly uncertain. Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton described the contest as “too close to call” in Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape. He suggested a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for the party’s current strategy of appealing to right-leaning voters at the expense of its core progressive base. “It would be a symbol of the failure of that strategy and the end point for it,” Jennings said.
A Labour victory, while offering some respite, would likely be short-lived, Jennings added, given expectations of significant losses for the party in upcoming local and devolved elections in ten weeks.
During a visit to the constituency on Monday, Starmer criticised the Green party’s proposal to legalise drugs, describing it as “disgusting” and claiming it would lead to increased drug use in public spaces. Polanski dismissed Starmer’s visit as “spoiler behaviour,” suggesting it indicated Labour’s lack of confidence in its own chances. “I think the Labour party will have to search their conscience if they’ve allowed the Reform party to win,” he stated.
The Green party leader also condemned a Labour attack advert on social media depicting a syringe alongside the words “Heroin, crack cocaine, spice. Green party says YES,” calling it a “new low” and a “last desperate gasp” from Starmer’s government.
The by-election was prompted by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, who was facing investigation over offensive messages shared in a WhatsApp group with other local Labour figures. The result is expected to be declared around 4am on Friday.
