German Healthcare faces Massive Deficits, Deloitte Study Warns
A new study by Deloitte projects significant financial challenges for Germany’s statutory health insurance (GKV) system. The consultancy firm’s calculations indicate rapidly growing deficits, even accounting for current government austerity measures. Deloitte estimates the GKV could face a revenue shortfall of between €89 adn €98 billion by 2030.
Recent trends already demonstrate increasing strain.In the first half of 2023, health insurance expenditures rose by 7.8%, exceeding typical growth. Deloitte forecasts that additional contributions from members will likely need to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 2.9% in the coming year to mitigate immediate financial pressures. Without this increase, the projected deficit for 2024 would swell to €56 billion.
Looking further ahead, the long-term outlook is considerably more concerning. Even with additional savings measures beyond those already outlined in the current coalition agreement, Deloitte projects a potential shortfall of €140 to over €300 billion by 2050.
The study attributes these escalating costs to two primary factors: a growing and aging population coupled with a declining number of working-age contributors, and the increasing expense of medical care. Older populations generally require more healthcare services, and advancements in medicine – including innovative but costly treatments like gene and cell therapies, and medications for conditions like nervous diseases and obesity – are driving up overall healthcare spending.
Deloitte’s report explores potential solutions to address these challenges. These include internal savings and revenue improvements within the healthcare system, and also broader policy interventions such as taxes on unhealthy foods, increased contributions from individuals, and tax incentives for healthy lifestyles.
