Washington D.C. – The U.S. goverment entered a shutdown after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach an agreement on federal funding, despite last-minute negotiations. this shutdown marks the latest in a series of similar events, raising questions about the effectiveness of such tactics and historical outcomes.
Historically, attempts to leverage government shutdowns for political gain have frequently enough backfired. Three prominent examples – over Clinton‘s budget in the 1990s, over immigration in 2018, and a separate attempt concerning Dreamers – all resulted in the initiating party failing to achieve their objectives and absorbing public blame. A separate vote on the Dreamers issue ultimately proved fruitless.
Several theories attempt to explain thes outcomes. A former Clinton aide suggested the inherent advantage of a sitting President in controlling public attention, a dynamic seemingly broken by donald Trump during the 2018-2019 shutdown over wall funding. Trump notably stated during a televised meeting with Democratic leaders, “I will be the one to shut it down. I won’t blame you for it.” Others point to a perceived “duty gene” within the Democratic Party, traditionally viewed as the “governing Party,” as noted by Susan B. Glasser of The New York Times. However, this didn’t hold true in the case of the Dreamers.
Political scientist Matthew Glassman recently told The New York Times that shutdowns generally “don’t work,” with the resisting side consistently framing the issue around the negative impacts on federal workers and citizens. This strategy, Glassman argues, ultimately leads to the “shutdown coalition” fracturing, the government reopening, and the initiating party suffering politically.
Despite this historical pattern, some early polling data suggested voters were prepared to blame republicans, given their control of the White House and both chambers of Congress – a relatively uncommon scenario for shutdowns. However, the long-term political consequences of past shutdowns, such as those in 1995 and 2013, remain debated. Some argue these events, despite failing to achieve substantive policy changes, contributed to a narrative of uncompromising conservatism that benefited the Republican Party. The question remains whether Democrats will face lasting repercussions from this shutdown, particularly given the potential for future events to overshadow it by the time of the upcoming midterm elections.
