Donald Trump’s agenda may resist Democratic wave, evidence suggests
Trump Approval Ratings Drop as Democrats Lead House Ballot
President Donald Trump faces a 30 percent approval rating in a survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 by Pew, marking the lowest point of his second term, vox.com reported. Reuters/Ipsos recorded his approval at 32 percent in early October, while polling averages sit between 37 percent and 39 percent. Ballotpedia reported Democrats leading 50 percent to 43 percent on the generic House ballot in September. Despite these figures and predictions of a blue wave on November 3 that could give Democrats control of the House and Senate, evidence suggests traditional political backlash may fail to slow the administration’s agenda.
Trump has systematically expanded executive power during his second term through actions such as bringing independent agencies to heel and firing members of the National Labor Relations Board and the Federal Trade Commission. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Trump v. Slaughter to overturn the 90-year-old Humphrey’s Executor precedent limiting presidential removal powers over agency heads, though the Court refused 5-4 to allow the removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook. Additional unilateral steps include federalizing National Guard troops for domestic purposes, conducting Caribbean boat strikes on suspected drug smugglers, and withholding roughly $800 million in congressionally approved funds from 11 programs supporting refugees, minority business development, and housing counseling.
Structural Hurdles in the House and Courts
No Democratic congressional wave can easily overcome the structural realities of gerrymandering and conservative control of the judiciary. Mid-decade redistricting reduced competitive House seats from 87 to 77, according to the Cook Political Report, which projected Republicans would gain roughly eight seats and Democrats two from the redraws. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report noted that fewer than 5 percent of Americans live in districts that will decide House control. Meanwhile, conservative control of the courts has deepened during Trump’s second term, providing a judicial backstop to executive initiatives.