D’Artis Kancs Develops Index to Assess Europe’s Readiness for Russian Invasion
European nations are rapidly increasing their defense spending and military readiness as warnings mount over the escalating threat of a potential Russian invasion. D’Artis Kancs from the Latvian National Armed Forces has developed a readiness-enabling index for European countries to assess preparedness across multiple domains. Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the defense staff, proclaimed this to be the most dangerous period that I have known
and added that Putin’s willingness to target neighboring states threatens the whole of NATO, including the UK.
Assessing Defence Readiness Across Four Dimensions
To determine how ready Europe is to defend the continent, Kancs scored countries on four specific dimensions: macroeconomic capacity to finance and absorb defense expansion, sectoral resilience to maintain production under disruption, defense-industrial capability to convert higher demand into higher output without supply chain constraints, and logistics and sustainment to replace usable capacity if damaged or destroyed. Based on this methodology, European countries are grouped into five distinct blocks: the Nordics comprising Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden; the Baltic-Polish Flank consisting of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland; the Industrial Core featuring Belgium, Czechia, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and the UK; the South-West Med containing Italy, Portugal, and Spain; and South-East Europe grouping Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, and Slovenia. This framework allows analysts to identify regional strengths, weaknesses, and binding constraints regarding where the chain might break first in the event of a war.
Military Leaders Warn of War with Russia
Amid rising anxieties over grey-zone aggression, covert kinetic actions, and potential hybrid threats, military leaders continue to sound the alarm. Armed Forces Minister Al Carns asserted that the shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door,
while former NATO deputy supreme allied commander Sir Richard Shirreff warned that without stronger deterrence, your sons and grandchildren and daughters are going to be facing a war with Russia.
Shirreff added that a lot of them are not going to come home from it
and envisioned white Commonwealth war graves . . .covering large amounts of Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, Tory gadfly Jacob Rees-Mogg urged Britons to do their duty
in case of war, even if some of them have to die,
explaining that if people aren’t willing to do their duty, then the country will be taken over by another country.
The BBC joined the discussion with the headline War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?
Warnings have also emerged from Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, regarding a low but growing risk
of Russia deploying military forces inside bordering NATO countries to divide the alliance, alongside growing concerns that Moscow is preparing a stealth mobilisation
of thousands of Russians.
https://x.com/United24media/status/2107105855027978276
Europe Seeks Autonomy Despite Heavy American Weaponry Dependency
European thinking and political and military strategies remain built on a desire to avoid escalation, leading officials to sometimes justify actions by insisting, No, we did not authorize the flights of Ukrainian drones,
even though the Russians know the drones did not take off from their territory. Over the last 18 months, Brussels has demonstrated sufficient mettle to support Kyiv on its own, signaling that it will not let Washington and Moscow decide the terms of war. At the same time, heavy reliance on American weaponry has created a dependency rate reaching military subordination, with 64% of European arms imports coming from America, particularly aircraft.
More on Artis Kancs
https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/2107421157322375302