Cyclone MAY Could Form Between Samoa and French Polynesia Next Week
Computer modelling indicates a potential second tropical cyclone of the season could form next week in the South Pacific, according to WeatherWatch.
The developing forecast low sits between Samoa and French Polynesia, positioned north of the Cook Islands.
While nothing is locked in yet, various computer models are being reviewed to see if the forecast low will power up into a tropical cyclone.
At this stage, there is no threat to any nation, and current forecasts indicate that any potential storm poses no threat to New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga, or Australia. The risk area for the potential cyclone next week is located between Samoa and French Polynesia and north of the Cook Islands.
WeatherWatch noted that the cyclone last month that hit the Cook Islands, Cyclone Wati, occurred two weeks before the official season even started. This early storm served as a sign of El Nino warming sea conditions in that part of the Pacific.
According to the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, the South Pacific’s tropical cyclone season officially runs from November to April. However, because some systems form outside this designated period, seasonal statistics utilize a full 12-month period from July to June. On average, the South Pacific region experiences around 8 tropical cyclones each season, based on figures from all seasons since 1980–81.
Tropical cyclone formation in the region is rarely evenly spread throughout the season, with quiet periods frequently followed by bursts of activity. These systems can generate damaging winds, heavy rainfall and flooding, large waves, storm surge, and coastal inundation.
Tropical lows can also cause these same impacts and affect areas further inland, even though their wind speeds are lower. Coastal damage can still happen from tropical cyclones that miss land, and rising sea levels worsen the threat of flooding from storm surges.
For local tailored warnings and information concerning tropical cyclone preparedness, residents and interested parties can contact Pacific National Meteorological Services. Multi-week tropical cyclone forecasts for the region are also available, based solely on ACCESS-S model guidance.