Columbia climate models project unprecedentedly strong El Niño
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are projected to reach 3.38 degrees Celsius above average this winter, breaking all sea-surface temperature records to date and driving an exceptionally strong El Niño event that will persist through the spring of 2027, news.climate.columbia.edu reported.
Pacific Waters Warm Past Unprecedented Thresholds
The upcoming winter season brings an extraordinary peak intensity for the naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Normally, trade winds push warm surface water from South America toward Asia. When these winds weaken, warm water flows back toward South America, creating unusually warm ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Forecast models from the Columbia Climate School’s Center for Climate Systems Research and International Research Institute for Climate and Society point to a nearly 100 percent chance that the high-intensity event continues through spring 2027. All 22 models utilized in the collaborative international effort indicate a very strong El Niño from September through February 2027, with the majority reaching or exceeding 3 degrees Celsius. Observed sea surface temperatures from June to August measured 2.03 degrees above average, driving the September to November estimate to 3.19 degrees before the projected 3.38-degree peak between November and January.
“This year, we are heading toward an exceptionally strong El Niño, with forecasts pointing to an extraordinary peak intensity,” Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, an associate research scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research, stated during an NYC Climate Week briefing.
By comparison, the powerful 1997 El Niño event peaked at 2.37 degrees Celsius. “The first IRI forecast was issued in 1997, but we’ve never seen a forecast like the one we have now in terms of certainty,” Andrew W. Robertson, a senior research scientist at the center, reported. “This sort of magnitude is also unprecedented.”
Global Precipitation Shifts and Historical Precedents
The extreme warming alters global precipitation patterns significantly. Models project reduced precipitation and ensuing drought conditions across the northern part of South America, Central America, South Africa, and Southeast Asia. Conversely, heavier rainfall is expected in lower South America, the southern United States, East Africa, the Middle East, and the United Kingdom.
Past strong events have triggered severe agricultural disruptions, including crop failures and food price spikes in drought-hit regions. The 1997–98 event, which peaked nearly a full degree cooler than current projections, was linked to an estimated 23,000 deaths and tens of billions of dollars in global damages. Alongside human toll, past events caused devastating floods along western coasts of South America and the U.S., collapsed anchovy fisheries, and induced mass coral bleaching during marine heat waves.
Global organizations are attempting to mitigate these impacts ahead of schedule. “Global organizations such as the Red Cross are integrating forecast information into early and anticipatory action with the goal to decrease impact,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a senior researcher at the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, noted.
Because global temperatures typically peak several months after an El Niño does, the lingering thermal energy is expected to establish a new annual record in 2027.