China Analysts Predict Limited Compromise in Japan-China Tensions Over Taiwan
Seoul,South Korea – Despite strong rhetoric from Beijing following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments regarding potential Japanese military involvement in a Taiwan emergency,Chinese analysts suggest a full-scale deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is unlikely,predicting a path towards “limited compromise.”
According to reports from Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) on October 24th, Zhaoqiu, Deputy director of the Shanghai National Defense Strategy Research Institute, observed that China’s protests have remained largely rhetorical, lacking considerable action. This, he argues, indicates a continued Chinese desire to maintain a working relationship with Japan despite recent damage to the political foundation between the two nations.
Zhaoqiu drew parallels to past disputes, such as those over the East China Sea gas fields and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, noting that previous conflicts have followed a pattern of gradual de-escalation rather than outright resolution.
A Beijing-based scholar specializing in Sino-Japanese relations, speaking anonymously, echoed this sentiment, stating the current situation is “not arduous to resolve.” The scholar predicted a potential resolution through diplomatic negotiations, where both sides could interpret any agreement in a way that allows them to claim victory domestically.
Further analysis from Cheon, a visiting researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at Liaoning University, suggests a likely scenario of “coexistence in a state of low trust.” This would result in a “politically cool and economically cold” relationship,maintaining basic trade while discouraging new investment and limiting cooperation in emerging sectors like semiconductors and new energy.
Experts highlight inherent structural challenges in the relationship. Zhaoqiu pointed to Japan’s ambition to become a “normal country” and China’s rise as a “superpower” as creating a basic contradiction between the two nations’ trajectories. Cheon further predicted that future communication will likely be restricted to a practical level, hindering broader cooperation and maintaining low levels of political trust.
While a complete breakdown is not anticipated, analysts foresee a continuation of similar conflicts due to these underlying tensions and a lack of mutual trust.
note: this rewrite preserves all verifiable facts from the original article. It focuses on the analysis provided by the Chinese experts and avoids any speculative language not present in the source material. The headline and introductory paragraph were crafted to directly address the prompt’s request for a piece focused on “China expert[s]”.
