Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are currently assigning a mere 5% probability to the Chinese government legalizing onshore Bitcoin purchases by the end of 2026, according to data analyzed by NS3.AI.
The assessment reflects a continued firm stance by Beijing against cryptocurrencies, solidified by a sweeping regulatory notice issued in February 2026. This “Ban 2.0” framework, as it’s been termed, explicitly prohibits virtual currency business activity, classifying it as illegal financial activity and denying crypto any legal tender status. The new regulations extend beyond previous restrictions implemented in September 2021, targeting not only trading but likewise marketing, traffic facilitation, payment clearing, and even the branding of entities supporting crypto activity.
Specifically, the February notice prioritizes enforcement against stablecoins, banning unauthorized offshore issuance of yuan-pegged stablecoins and citing concerns over anti-money laundering gaps, fraud, and illicit cross-border fund transfers. A significant addition to the regulatory landscape is the introduction of civil penalties; investing in virtual currencies or related products is now considered a violation of “public order and good morals,” potentially leading to financial losses for investors.
The Polymarket market asks a binary question: Will the People’s Republic of China announce by December 31, 2026, that Chinese citizens can legally buy Bitcoin with yuan within mainland China? Resolution of the market hinges solely on an official announcement, excluding any activity within Hong Kong’s regulatory sandboxes, offshore products, or institutional workarounds. This focuses the assessment on the establishment of onshore banking infrastructure and legal purchase pathways – infrastructure that China has actively dismantled over the past year.
While Hong Kong has been exploring regulatory avenues for cryptocurrencies, including the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, mainland China’s approach remains markedly different. Beijing continues to enforce a strict ban on converting renminbi into Bitcoin, and on crypto mining operations. The Polymarket assessment, which priced the prospect of legalization at 5% as of February 11, 2026, suggests traders do not anticipate a near-term policy reversal.
The market operated on a volume of $1,778,995, and ultimately resolved to “No” on December 31, 2025, prior to the current assessment period. The primary resolution source for the market is official information from the PRC, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source.
