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Senate ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act‘ Could Add $3.9 Trillion to National Debt, CBO Finds
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its analysis of the Senate’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” projecting that it could add a staggering $3.9 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [[2]]. This figure accounts for the bill’s proposed tax cuts and spending measures, highlighting the potential long-term fiscal impact of the legislation.
Key Findings of the CBO Report
the CBO’s analysis reveals several key factors contributing to the projected increase in the national debt:
- Net Tax Cuts: The bill includes approximately $4.45 trillion in net tax cuts, significantly reducing government revenue.
- Gross Spending Increase: the bill proposes nearly $300 billion in gross spending increases across various sectors.
- Spending Cuts Offset: These spending increases are partially offset by roughly $1.5 trillion in gross spending cuts.
- Increased Interest Costs: The CBO estimates that the bill would increase interest costs by nearly $700 billion.
Did You Know? The national debt of the United States surpassed $34.6 trillion in early 2024, according to the Treasury Department [ref].
Breakdown of Deficit Impacts by Committee
The CBO report provides a detailed breakdown of how the bill would affect the deficit across different Senate committees. The following table summarizes the projected deficit increase or decrease for each committee:
| Title | Deficit Increase (-) / Decrease (FY 2025-2034) |
|---|---|
| Agriculture | $120 billion |
| Armed Services | -$150 billion |
| Banking | $1 billion |
| Commerce, Science, & Transportation | $44 billion |
| Energy & Natural Resources | $27 billion |
| Environment & Public Works | $3 billion |
| Finance | -$3,466 billion |
| HELP | $307 billion |
| Homeland Security | -$129 billion |
| Judiciary | -$9 billion |
| Interactions | -$3 billion |
| Subtotal, Primary Deficit Impact | -$3,253 billion |
| Interest | -$690 billion |
| Total Debt Impact | $3.94 trillion |
Source: CBO,estimates based on current policy adjustment. Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Senate vs.House: A Trillion-Dollar Difference
The Senate’s version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is projected to borrow almost $1 trillion more than the bill passed by the House of Representatives. Moreover, the Senate bill falls short of complying with House reconciliation instructions, missing the mark by nearly $500 billion in required gross spending cuts or offsetting tax changes.
Pro Tip: Understanding the differences between House and Senate versions of legislation is crucial for tracking the legislative process and anticipating potential compromises.
Potential for Even Higher Costs
The CBO’s estimates may understate the potential long-term costs of the bill. The legislation relies on several temporary provisions, and if these provisions were made permanent, borrowing could increase by an additional $1 trillion or more
